US Commercial Property Update Does COVID-19 mean the end of real estate’s bull run? Commercial property has outperformed both Treasuries and equities in the last two decades, but the fast-forward of structural change caused by COVID-19 will mean that in the next decade property is... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Remote working fatigue won’t derail long-run adoption Low utilization of office space supports our expectations of weak short-term demand. And, despite some firms raising concerns over productivity as the current remote work “experiment” continues, there... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Only industrial escapes downgrades While we expect the economic recovery to continue, there are downside risks in the next couple of years, particularly in the consumer sector. This will weigh on retail property, which we expect to be... 21st September 2020 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Slower recovery in values given weaker office outlook As widely expected, Q2 brought a range of disappointing data, from plunging investment volumes to further falls in retail rents. And while property values outside of retail have generally held up so... 18th September 2020 · 33 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Remote working poses significant downside to rents As we have argued in our Global Property Focus, we think that some of the increase in remote working seen this year will become a permanent feature of working practices in office-based sectors in the... 14th September 2020 · 17 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Aug.) Total real estate debt held its ground in August, as a rise in commercial debt was offset by a drop in residential. The rise in the former can be explained by rent arrears, particularly in the retail... 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for housing in a post-COVID world Even after the immediate threat of COVID has receded, we expect as many as 50% of office-based employees will work from home at least once a week. But the move away from cities and toward the suburbs... 9th September 2020 · 22 mins read
US Commercial Property Update When it comes to retail, bigger is no longer better Retail malls are set to fare badly in this downturn as Americans avoid enclosed spaces and adopt online shopping practices. But regional and super-regional malls, which were already underperforming... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Scenarios for the effect of remote working on US offices Given uncertainty around the level of adoption of remote-working, change in space allocated per worker and how large any reduction in supply might be, we provide a set of potential scenarios for the... 24th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations need to improve further to entice investors Property valuations improved substantially in Q2, on the back of a huge 120 bps drop in equities earnings yields. However, while the office, retail and apartment sectors look undervalued on our... 20th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jul.) July’s increase in real estate debt was mostly driven by residential loans, but commercial property debt also ticked higher. However, with investment totals weak in Q2, this could simply reflect the... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Remote working to hit office income by 20-25% We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least... 6th August 2020 · 25 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2020) As expected, all-property total returns turned negative in Q2, led lower by sharp markdowns in the retail and hotel sectors. And, while rental values and capital values fell in all sectors last... 27th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we too gloomy about industrial? The strength of industrial take-up in Q2 was driven by a ramp-up in delivery capacity, particularly by supermarkets and Amazon. Along with the continued upward trend in the MSCI monthly data, this... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short, sharp, downturn will prevent major LTV breaches Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
