US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar. 2024)

The solid 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in March suggests that competition among buyers for the limited number of second-hand homes on the market remains strong. We expect that to continue for the...

28th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

​​RBNZ policy changes will ease lending standards​

The debt-to-income restrictions launched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today won’t restrict the flow of new mortgage lending. In fact, the concurrent easing of restrictions on loan-to-value...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Update

What would an end to the property crisis look like?

Resolution of China’s property crisis would result in residential sales being substantially higher than today. Sales could rise by a third. But we wouldn’t expect prices to increase by much, if at all...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Spain logistics rent growth upgrade, but Madrid to trail

Spanish industrial rent growth beat expectations in Q1 this year, outpacing rises elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, this was mainly due to Barcelona, where we have raised our prime rent forecast...

24th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (Apr. 2024)

The spike in mortgage rates to 7.3% in April caused a sizeable drop in new home sales, as buyers decided to wait for a chance of getting a lower rate. We think this will partly reverse in May as...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Apr. 2024)

The drop in existing home sales in April will be followed up by further falls in the coming months, supporting our view that the recovery in transactions we expect this year will be concentrated in...

22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24)

Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2024)

Smaller property yield rises and still-solid rental growth left all-property capital values little changed in Q1, a notable improvement on the sharp falls seen since mid-2022. However, we think...

22nd May 2024 · 0 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Latest data offer little optimism for apartment rents

The latest apartment rent data are consistent with our view that rental growth will be sluggish this year. Although single-family rent growth has fared better, we suspect it will soon start to slow...

21st May 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Notes from our residential investment roundtables

At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. Across the...

17th May 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial REITs point the way for direct market prices

The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating...

17th May 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Property support, imbalances growing, tariff retaliation

The property support measures outlined today are significant. If local governments and SOEs take advantage of the funding on offer to buy unsold inventory from developers, sales would rise by around...

17th May 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Housing Starts (Apr. 2024)

The modest rebound in housing starts in April confirmed that the slump the month before was a weather-related blip. But the recovery wasn’t as strong as we had anticipated, which potentially casts...

16th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

Destocking could offer a short-run fix to property woes

Government purchases of unsold housing may help to stabilise China’s property sector in the near-term, alleviating a key economic headwind. But they won’t prevent the sector from shrinking...

16th May 2024 · 6 mins read