China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with...

31st January 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Direct market values to fall despite signals from REITs

Typically, US REIT price indices have been a good indicator of the growth path for capital values in the direct market. That said, even though REIT prices rebounded in Q4 2023, we don’t expect the...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov. 2023)

The marked slowdown in house prices in November was the first sign of a response in prices to the spike in mortgage rates a month earlier.

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Dec. 23)

Net lending to commercial property increased for the tenth consecutive month in December, but investment sentiment remained downbeat. Looking ahead, we expect investment to slowly recover over H1 2024...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2023)

The worsening in total returns to -3.0% q/q in Q4 was consistent with our expectations of bigger-than-average year-end markdowns. But the major takeaway was that the data and NCREIF’s release notes...

29th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4)

The Q4 RICS survey suggested that occupier and investment sentiment remained pessimistic in Q4. We expect sentiment will be subdued in at least the first half of 2024, with credit conditions staying...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

London Housing Markets Chart Pack

London Housing Chart Pack (Q1 2024)

London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other...

25th January 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Dec. 2023)

New home sales rebounded in December, reversing nearly all of their decline in the previous month when mortgage borrowing costs were much closer to their 8% peak.

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Latest RICS survey offers little sign of recovery

The latest RICS survey offered tentative signs that we could be past the worst of the property downturn in Europe, as both occupier and investment demand balances picked up slightly. However, the big...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 2023)

Having deteriorated for the best part of 2023, sentiment over all-property occupier demand and rents improved in Q4. However, the balances remain negative, pointing to subdued demand and rental growth...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Questions from our latest US housing drop-in

We held a 20-minute online briefing this week to discuss our new forecast for the US housing market in 2024. You can watch the recording of the “drop-in” here. This Update recaps our answers to the...

25th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Residential yields have further to rise

The long boom in residential investment has been severely dented by soaring interest rates. Solid fundamentals mean investor interest will remain strong, but it is unlikely residential yields have...

24th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jan. 24)

Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will stabilise in the first quarter of 2024. But given historically narrow yield spreads, we doubt we will...

24th January 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Why we see more distress coming in 2024

We expect evidence of distress to ramp up this year as loan extensions end. Many borrowers will be forced to either inject new capital, return assets to lenders or sell into a soft market. Those...

22nd January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jan 2024)

If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will...

22nd January 2024 · 1 min read