Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages

The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a...

6th June 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Housing Market Focus

Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much

Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on...

6th June 2024 · 14 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to a two-year high of 54.7 in May. Both the commercial and housing balances improved, with the latter rising above 50 for the first time since October 2022...

6th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

How much office space will be needed by 2030?

Our 2020 analysis of the impact of changed working patterns on office demand correctly estimated the share of fully remote work, but underpredicted the extent of hybrid work. Yet with office job...

5th June 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (May 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates in May was not enough to stop home purchase mortgage applications from falling to a three-month low. The chances of a quick turnaround in June currently look slim, as the...

5th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Will delays to rate cuts hit capital values?

Inflation has been stickier than we had expected and we have therefore pushed back when we think the Bank will start cutting interest rates. That may put a little upward pressure on property yields...

4th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May)

While house price growth accelerated rather sharply in May, stretched affordability points to a renewed slowdown. Indeed, most leading indicators point to a renewed moderation in price growth.

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Apr. 24)

Following two consecutive quarters of declines, net lending to property reached £891m in April. But looking through the monthly volatility, net lending totalled just £692m over the past three months...

31st May 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (May 2024)

Despite a small increase in the Nationwide house price index in May, the big picture is that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stagnate.

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Residential outperforms within a modest recovery

Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total...

30th May 2024 · 27 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (May 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of...

30th May 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany

While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom.

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (May 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed limited change on the previous forecast round in March. There was a small upward revision to all-property rental growth expectations for 2024, but a downgrade to...

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2024)

The tick up in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused demand to soften. As a result, house prices are likely to tread water over the coming months. But our forecast that Bank Rate will...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read