UK Housing Market Update

Rental market continues to contract

The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but...

12th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Mar. 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have upwardly revised their 2024 expectations, which are now more in line with our view. Stronger rental growth help drive that improvement and...

8th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Property Drop-In: US CRE Outlook – When’s the recovery?

1710860400

US commercial real estate prices may have fallen 15% from their peaks – led by a 30% plunge in office values – but this isn’t over.

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 24)

The smallest month-on-month increase in house prices since September suggested that the boost to house prices from the decline in mortgage rates since last summer is over. With mortgage rates now...

7th March 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (Feb. 2024)

February’s mortgage applications data show rising mortgage rates put an end to what had been the start of a fairly promising recovery, following the low for applications in October 2023. We think this...

6th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Feb. 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to 49.7 in February, just under the no change level. The rise was driven by the housing component, with commercial activity edging back a touch. As interest...

6th March 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Focus

Property construction correction has barely begun

The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China’s property sector has only just begun. Property sales and project starts have collapsed. But property construction activity has retreated only...

6th March 2024 · 14 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Investment activity unlikely to improve in 2024

Commercial real estate investment saw its worst year in over a decade last year. Most brokers seem to expect a recovery in investment activity this year as the Fed cuts interest rates and distressed...

5th March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

No end in sight to rising house prices

Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the...

5th March 2024 · 15 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Drop back in office completions to support prime rents

Completions in Europe are set to increase over the next year or so as construction delays unwind, which will contribute to rising vacancy. However, we expect the upward pressure from supply to ease...

5th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Focus

Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record

Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in...

4th March 2024 · 21 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe

Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s...

1st March 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have office delinquencies not hit GFC-era highs?

The resilience of the US economy in this cycle means the rise in distressed assets has been much slower than in the GFC-era recession, as relatively few firms have gone bust. But the structural...

29th February 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24)

29th February 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

Green premium helps drive refurbishment boom

The latest crane survey reported the highest volume of London office starts on record. In part that reflects a refurbishment boom as developers retrofit their buildings to meet MEES standards and...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read