Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hit by China lockdown and war in Ukraine Recently-released Q1 GDP figures showed that most EMs performed well at the start of this year, but headwinds are growing. Lockdowns are dealing a heavy blow to China’s economy and spillovers from the... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s new constitution, Brazil’s improving finances Some of the doubts over Chile’s political system have eased after the Constitutional Convention completed a draft of the new charter, but political risks remain high for now, which may keep the peso... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) The 0.8% q/q contraction in Chile’s GDP in Q1 suggests the economy is coming back down to earth after a stellar 2021, and there is a growing chance of a recession this year. Meanwhile, the current... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Boric on the backfoot, Argentine inflation concerns The political fight over a fresh round of pension withdrawals in Chile underlines the Boric administration's struggle to wean the economy off accommodative policies. This will heap more pressure on... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political risks: Peruvian protests & Chile’s constitution The mass protests this week in Peru, triggered by rising inflation, are likely to lead to a further shift towards looser fiscal policy and a larger political risk premium on local financial assets... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile CPI (Mar.) The larger-than-expected rises in inflation in both Chile and Brazil last month (to 9.4% and 11.3%, respectively) support our view that their central banks will raise interest rates by more than most... 8th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Commodities boost Lat Am markets, economies less so High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and... 31st March 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: tightening cycle not yet done and dusted The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today, following on from its 150bp rate increase to 7.00%, suggests that its tightening cycle is winding down to a close. However, we think... 30th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fed tightening and the fallout for Latin America The US Fed's tightening cycle is unlikely to be a major concern for much of Latin America, although Chile's large current account deficit may become a growing vulnerability. The Fed’s move may also... 18th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q4 2021) The 1.8% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q4 kept output well above its pre-pandemic trend but, with the economy now coming back down to earth, there is a growing chance of a recession this year. Meanwhile... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Three key challenges facing President Boric Chile’s newly-inaugurated President Boric is inheriting a slowing economy which is likely to slip into a recession this year. But his government will still have to push through significant fiscal... 15th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Lat Am inflation & rates We estimate that the impact of higher fuel, food and potentially goods prices triggered by the war in Ukraine will add roughly 1.0%-pt to headline inflation rates across major Latin American economies... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Surging commodity prices & Argentine subsidies The recent surge in commodity prices has given a boost to most Latin American currencies and it is generally seen as good news for the region. But not all economies will benefit. Chile's external... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
