Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank: still focused on inflation risks The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today revealed that policymakers are more concerned about inflation risks than we’d thought. We still think that Chile’s central bank will... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High inflation will limit room for interest rate cuts GDP growth in Latin America will be among the weakest of any EM region this year and next, and is likely to disappoint consensus expectations. Persistently high inflation has prompted us to push back... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Global turmoil hits Lat Am when it’s already down Strains in the global banking sector have flared up at a time when Latin America was in the midst of a period of economic weakness. Regional GDP fell in the final quarter of last year and surveys for... 22nd March 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting credit risks Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q4) The weaker-than-expected 0.1% q/q expansion in Chile in Q4 of last year confirms that high inflation and tight monetary policy are taking a heavy toll on the economy. We think the economy will... 20th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banking turmoil spillovers, Argentina’s IMF loan Latin America's direct exposure to SVB and Credit Suisse is limited, but the turmoil is still likely to have indirect effects on the region. To the extent that growth in the US is weaker, Mexican... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Could Copom cut (soon)? Chile’s tax reform We think that investors in Brazil are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate cuts as early as Q2. Despite February’s fall in inflation, core price pressures are still uncomfortably strong... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdowns and NPLs: lessons from the past Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have risen by as much as 4-5%-pts during non-banking crisis downturns in EMs in the past. This time around, there are reasons to think that the increase will be... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Wage pressures, Mexico’s Tesla plant Labour market data released across the region this week flew under the radar, but the figures provide worrying signs that rapid wage growth in Brazil will continue to keep core inflation high. We take... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External vulnerabilities to ease as growth weakens The latest data suggest that current account deficits in the region’s major economies narrowed towards the end of last year, which is particularly good news for Colombia and Chile. Both were running... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, hope in Argentina, fear in Brazil The new process to re-write Chile's the constitution will probably lead to a more slim-lined charter, but there are still likely to be major economic implications – notably, higher government spending... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Peru engulfed in chaos Peru’s newly-inaugurated President Boluarte’s call to bring forward the next general election to 2024 has failed to pacify protesters who took to the streets following the impeachment of President... 14th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A failed coup d’état, inflation worries, Lula’s fiscal plans The end of Castillo’s chaotic presidency in Peru may bring some near-term relief to investors, but it won’t solve the country’s dysfunctional political system. Political gridlock is here to stay and... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Past peak inflation – what now for EM policymakers? 1669906800 Inflation appears to have finally peaked for emerging markets – but how quickly will price pressures now ease, and what will that mean for the 2023 outlook?
