Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Rate cuts coming, but easing will be gradual The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but... 8th June 2023 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andes adjusting, tight job markets in Brazil & Mexico Data out this week suggest that Colombia’s economy has started to undergo an adjustment process, which is set to continue over the course of this year and next and underpins our forecast that growth... 2nd June 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule inches closer, Chile’s bank risks The strong support for Brazil’s new fiscal framework in a vote in the lower house this week suggests that there’s more political appetite for austerity than we had anticipated. And, taken together... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack A temporary rebound in growth The latest activity figures suggest that most Latin American economies held up better than we’d thought in the first few months of 2023. Mexico and Colombia made surprisingly strong starts to the year... 23rd May 2023 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s ‘mutual death’, external imbalances easing Ecuador’s political crisis escalated this week after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly to dodge an imminent impeachment vote. Whoever wins the fresh elections, the next couple... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) Growth in Chile’s economy accelerated at the start of the year, but the headline figure masks signs of pronounced weakness. We expect the economy to struggle over the coming quarters amid tight... 18th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Easing inflation, Chile shifts right, Mexico’s super-peso The raft of April inflation figures released this week showed a more marked decline in core price pressures. That being said, we don’t think inflation (or interest rates) will fall as far as many... 12th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep’s inflation concerns, Chile votes (again) We warned a few weeks ago that Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) was too sanguine on inflation risks, but hawkish comments this week show that policymakers’ views on inflation are shifting towards our... 5th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strength in exports unlikely to last The surge in exports from Latin America’s major economies in March suggests that the upside risks to our GDP growth and currency forecasts are building. But with advanced economies poised to fall into... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Monetary policy stance slowly shifting The raft of inflation data over the past couple of weeks will have provided some relief for Latin American central banks, with headline rates in most countries now on a clear downward trajectory. In... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Chile’s private sector cope with higher interest rates? There’s little evidence (so far) that the surge in interest rate is leading to widespread debt servicing problems in Chile’s private sector, but there are pockets of vulnerability in the household... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule, shifting monetary policy tide? The new fiscal framework presented to congress by Brazil’s government this week would, if implemented in full, go a long way towards stabilising Brazil's public finances. But there are several hurdles... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s first 100 days, Chile’s and Brazil’s export boost This week marked Brazil’s president Lula's first 100 days in office and, while there’s been a bit more enthusiasm from investors for Brazilian assets in the past week, the big picture is that it’s... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina-IMF trouble ahead, Andean central banks A read between the lines of the IMF’s Fourth Review of Argentina’s $44bn Extended Fund Facility suggests that the deal could be starting to fray at the seams. Meanwhile, the latest messaging from... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
