Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank takes another hawkish step Chile’s central bank raised its policy rate by another 125bp yesterday, to 4.00%, and the accompanying statement, alongside today’s Monetary Policy Report, suggest that its tightening cycle will be... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Uneven recoveries across EMs The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s recovery falling behind other EMs The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s inflation expectations, commodity exports Brazil's central bank made it clear at its meeting this week that it will continue to hike rates aggressively until inflation expectations come down which, based on past form, will occur when actual... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further rise in Chile’s inflation to 6.7% y/y – the highest rate since late 2008 – will keep pressure on the central bank to deliver further aggressive monetary tightening. We expect another 125bp... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Red-hot Chile set to cool Chile’s economy has been operating above potential for several months but there are signs that activity is starting to cool. And policy tightening, falls in copper prices and the possibility of more... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New face at Banxico, Chile election wrap-up The unexpected change in the nomination for Banxico’s next governor, to Victoria Rodríguez from Arturo Herrera, hit investor confidence but we don't think this switch alters the outlook for Banxico’s... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political storm clouds lifting for investors…for now Political developments in Latin America have generally turned in investors’ favour this month. Right-wing José Antonio Kast beat his left-wing rival, Gabriel Boric, in the first round of Chile’s... 24th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean external imbalances, Peronists humbled While much of the focus in Chile has centred on Sunday's general election, one story which may have flown under the radar is that external vulnerabilities are building. Data this week showed that the... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to Chile’s election The frontrunners in Sunday’s presidential election in Chile, Gabriel Boric and José Antonio Kast, hold different views on the desired size of the state in the economy, but both advocate relatively... 18th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q3 2021) The 4.9% q/q surge in Chile’s GDP in Q3 took output not only above its pre-pandemic level but also its pre-crisis trend. The strength of the figures means that we now expect above-consensus growth of... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus developments in EMs The COVID-19 situation in many EMs has improved markedly over the past month or so as new infections have fallen sharply and vaccine rollouts have gathered pace. That said, the recent surge in virus... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile feeling the heat, Brazil bending the (fiscal) rules Strong September activity data out of Chile this week adds to signs that that the economy is starting to overheat, which will put even more pressure on the central bank to take some steam out of the... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Lat Am & S. Africa Among the major EMs, long-term fiscal problems look most challenging in South Africa and several large Latin American economies. And rising interest rates will make the fiscal squeeze needed to... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at the latest surveys The latest survey data suggest that GDP growth held up relatively well in Brazil and picked up slightly in Mexico in Q4. In the meantime, Chile’s red-hot recovery is continuing which will keep the... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
