Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The small rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 7.9% y/y, in the first two weeks of January means that there is a growing risk that Banxico delivers a bit more tightening beyond the 25bp... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hot labour market, Argentine bonds Expectations for inflation and interest rates in Brazil have shifted up on the back of Lula’s fiscal plans, but an equally (if not more) concerning development on this front is the surge in wage... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Lula unlikely to herald new era for biofuels The election of left-wing candidate Lula for a third term as Brazil’s president is unlikely to accelerate Petrobras’ sluggish shift towards large scale biofuel production. We expect proposed oil... 18th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s riots, Peru turmoil, Mexico’s USMCA win Brazil’s financial markets have recovered after an initial drop following the riots in Brasília last Sunday, but we think there are reasons for caution. This is all coming at a time when the economy... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2022) The higher-than-expected Brazilian inflation reading of 5.8% y/y last month, coming alongside growing fiscal concerns, will give Copom more cause to delay the start of its easing cycle. 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Riots add to challenges for Brazil’s markets The storming of Brazil’s congress by protestors on Sunday has been negative for the country’s markets, and we think there are other factors that will drag those markets down further. Drop-Ins – The... 9th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on the riots in Brasília The implications of the invasion of Brazil’s congress by protestors yesterday are mainly political. But the riots could result in a long-lasting risk premium on the country’s financial assets... 9th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s first presidential (mis)steps, Colombian inflation The first speeches and actions by Brazil’s president Lula after his inauguration earlier this week reinforce our view that his presidential term will be characterised by higher public spending and a... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in November and the weak surveys for December provide further evidence that the economy is in the midst of a slowdown. But the central bank will... 5th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (December 2022) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for December was unchanged from the November full-month figure of 5.9% y/y, which provides an early sign that the big falls in inflation have now happened and... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, hope in Argentina, fear in Brazil The new process to re-write Chile's the constitution will probably lead to a more slim-lined charter, but there are still likely to be major economic implications – notably, higher government spending... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Peru engulfed in chaos Peru’s newly-inaugurated President Boluarte’s call to bring forward the next general election to 2024 has failed to pacify protesters who took to the streets following the impeachment of President... 14th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A failed coup d’état, inflation worries, Lula’s fiscal plans The end of Castillo’s chaotic presidency in Peru may bring some near-term relief to investors, but it won’t solve the country’s dysfunctional political system. Political gridlock is here to stay and... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2022) The further fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.9% y/y, last month will help to ease the squeeze on household incomes. But with the prices of many core goods and services still rising rapidly and, more... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s fiscal risks could keep rates higher for longer The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting yesterday, at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%, made clear that policymakers are increasingly concerned about fiscal loosening... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
