Latin America Chart Pack Inflation at a turning point Latin American currencies have come under pressure this month which will put further upward pressure on inflation, but the bigger picture is that headline rates are at, or close to, a peak across the... 27th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (September 2022) The fall in inflation in Brazil to a 16-month low of 8.0% y/y in the first half of September confirms that the monetary tightening cycle is over. By the same token, the fact that inflation remains... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Tango with the IMF, tightening cycles This week’s news that Argentina will receive the next tranche of its IMF deal has caused near-term debt risks to ease. But the Fund has still not addressed the overvalued exchange rate, which could... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Brazil and Colombia The improvement in government budget positions across Latin America over the past year or so has been driven in large part by temporary factors and is likely to reverse before long. As things stand... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: tightening cycle now over but rates to stay high The Brazilian central bank’s decision to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% after 12 consecutive hikes makes it one of the first central banks globally to bring its tightening cycle to an end... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Brazil’s spending cap survive? The credibility of Brazil’s spending cap – the country’s key fiscal anchor – has been seriously undermined by tweaks and workarounds since the start of the pandemic. And it looks likely that the cap... 21st September 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fuel subsidies, Brazil’s presidential race The commitment of Colombia’s new administration to address costly energy subsidies is the fiscally responsible thing to do, but it will come at the expense of exacerbating the country’s inflation... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Lula: lessons from the past While Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (better known simply as Lula), the front-runner in Brazil’s presidential race, has been vague about his policy stance, one common theme from his campaign is nostalgia... 14th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile goes back to the drawing board The surprisingly strong rejection of Chile’s proposed new constitution has eased concerns about a radical shake up of the country’s economic model. But the constitutional process is set to continue... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2022) Brazil’s headline inflation rate fell to a 14-month low of 8.7% y/y in August, but hawkish comments from the central bank this week support our view that there will be one final 25bp interest rate... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Brazil’s financial markets to struggle We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – the state of the race Former President Lula holds a commanding lead in the polls ahead of Brazil’s presidential election on 2nd October. It seems unlikely that he would govern as radically as his party’s manifesto suggests... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer boom, Chile’s referendum The surge in consumer spending in Brazil shown in the Q2 GDP figures released this week was partly driven by temporary government support measures. But improvements in the labour market, coupled with... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in July suggests that, while headwinds facing the economy are growing, it started the third quarter in decent shape. Taken together with the robust... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q2 has prompted us to revise up our 2022 GDP growth forecast to an above-consensus 2.5% (previously 2.0%). And the likelihood of a final... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (August 2022) The further fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 9.6% y/y in the first two weeks of August was mainly due to tax cuts on energy and masks the fact that underlying price pressures remain strong... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
