Commodities Update Sugar rush won’t last Global sugar prices have surged by over 20% since the start of the year as production estimates in several key producers have been downgraded. We think the supply picture is unlikely to change by much... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Feb.) The plunge in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.7% y/y, was driven by a sharp decline in food inflation; core inflation remains high and the headline inflation rate is set to rise again next... 11th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hawks, Ecuador’s political crisis The new fiscal rule proposed by Brazil's Finance Ministry yesterday might have eased the central bank's fiscal concerns somewhat, but we doubt it will bring forward the timing of interest rate cuts... 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Is Brazil joining the renminbi club? China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi, another sign of closer ties between the two countries following President Lula’s election. But talk of them... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High inflation will limit room for interest rate cuts GDP growth in Latin America will be among the weakest of any EM region this year and next, and is likely to disappoint consensus expectations. Persistently high inflation has prompted us to push back... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s new fiscal plans: yet to convince The new fiscal rule proposed today by Brazil’s finance minister would, if implemented in full, go some way towards stabilising the public debt ratio. But the government has a lot to do convince... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production, coupled with the weakness of the latest surveys, suggests that it’s touch and go as to whether the economy contracted again in Q1. Even so, as the... 30th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (March 2023) The further decline in inflation in Brazil, to 5.4% y/y in the middle of this month, was driven by lower food inflation, but core price pressures remain very strong. As a result, the release won’t... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom sticks to its guns The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% yesterday will have disappointed some (not least in the government) that thought global... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Global turmoil hits Lat Am when it’s already down Strains in the global banking sector have flared up at a time when Latin America was in the midst of a period of economic weakness. Regional GDP fell in the final quarter of last year and surveys for... 22nd March 2023 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banking turmoil spillovers, Argentina’s IMF loan Latin America's direct exposure to SVB and Credit Suisse is limited, but the turmoil is still likely to have indirect effects on the region. To the extent that growth in the US is weaker, Mexican... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Could Copom cut (soon)? Chile’s tax reform We think that investors in Brazil are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate cuts as early as Q2. Despite February’s fall in inflation, core price pressures are still uncomfortably strong... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2023) The further fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.6% y/y in February, was driven mainly by a drop in food inflation. Core inflation pressures remain uncomfortably strong for the central bank, which... 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdowns and NPLs: lessons from the past Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have risen by as much as 4-5%-pts during non-banking crisis downturns in EMs in the past. This time around, there are reasons to think that the increase will be... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Wage pressures, Mexico’s Tesla plant Labour market data released across the region this week flew under the radar, but the figures provide worrying signs that rapid wage growth in Brazil will continue to keep core inflation high. We take... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2022) The 0.2% q/q fall in Brazil’s GDP in Q4, which was driven by weakness in domestic demand, provides clear evidence that high interest rates are taking a heavier toll on the economy. Taken together with... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
