Capital Daily Brazil’s markets could come under pressure before long We suspect investors are a bit too optimistic about the outlook for Brazil’s public finances, and as such its financial markets may come under pressure before too long. 31st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to watch after Lula’s victory The narrow victory for Lula in the second-round of Brazil’s presidential election yesterday has, so far, thankfully not been contested by Bolsonaro. But there’s still likely to be a negative reaction... 31st October 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tightening election race The second-round of Brazil’s presidential election race on Sunday is looking much closer than had seemed likely a few weeks ago. Lula still appears to be the favourite. But the rising likelihood of a... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s behind Brazil’s productivity problem? Brazil’s economy has a deep-seated problem of low productivity growth and it’s hard to see either presidential candidate undertaking the reforms needed to lift investment, strengthen competitive... 28th October 2022 · 17 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How will EM economies and markets fare in the global downturn? 1667487600 Economists from our Emerging Markets and Markets teams discussed the outlook for EM financial markets in this regular dive into the big stories in EMs.
Latin America Economics Update Copom: staying hawkish despite inflation plunge The hawkish language in the statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision late yesterday, at which it left the Selic rate at 13.75%, reinforces our view that the sharp fall in inflation... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack All eyes on Brazil Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday to decide who’ll become the country’s next president in a heated run-off election between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his left-wing rival Lula. Lula is still... 25th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (October 2022) The drop in Brazilian inflation to an 18-month low of 6.9% y/y in the first half of October reinforces the view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is at an end. Even so, the strength of... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Deforestation a key issue in Brazil’s election Environmental policy is one channel through which Brazil’s presidential election has global implications. The country is the single largest source of deforestation in the world and, with deforestation... 17th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep. 2022) The plunge in Brazil’s inflation rate to 7.2% y/y last month (from 8.7% in August) confirms that the central bank’s tightening cycle has ended. But with some goods and services inflation still rising... 11th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The dust settles in Brazil, Petro hits at BanRep The stronger-than-expected performance of Jair Bolsonaro and his right-wing allies in Brazil’s election last Sunday has buoyed the country’s financial markets by reducing the risk of a dramatic shift... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August wiped out July’s gains and the sector may have been a drag on the economy over Q3 as a whole. That said, the surprisingly strong surveys... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What Lula could mean for Brazil’s financial markets Investors seem to have taken the prospect of a second Lula presidency positively so far, but we suspect returns from the country’s dollar bonds and equities will disappoint over the next couple of... 3rd October 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula in pole position but will face hurdles in congress Left-wing former president Lula looks most likely to win the second-round run-off presidential vote on 30th October. But the surprisingly strong performance of President Bolsonaro and his allies on... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How Brazil’s financial markets could perform under Lula Investors have so far taken the prospect of Lula winning Brazil’s presidential election in their stride, but we doubt the country’s markets will do as well as they did last time he was in power. 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil: what to watch after the election All eyes will be on Brazil’s general election on Sunday and, in this Weekly, we outline five key things to watch in the immediate aftermath of the vote. 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
