China Economics Update Answers to your questions on China’s slowdown Challenges to China’s long-run growth potential that were mounting a few years ago are now evident to all. We continue to expect trend growth to have fallen to around 2% in 2030. 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect the renminbi to weaken much further Despite the recent slowdown in China’s reopening recovery, we don’t expect the renminbi to weaken much further against the US dollar. Yield differentials should begin to tilt back in favour of the... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Update China’s oil recovery not over yet China’s refineries pumped out more oil products than at any point in their history in the first four months of this year. This is perhaps not too surprising given that the removal of COVID-19... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary easing back on the cards In its latest policy report, the PBOC argued that the recovery has exceeded expectations and that the recent drop in inflation isn’t a major concern. Nonetheless, it still struck a dovish tone... 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What more disappointing China data means for its markets The “China re-opening” narrative has been on life support for some time, and another round of weaker-than-expected economic data out of the Middle Kingdom adds to our sense that China’s economy and... 16th May 2023 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Growth on most indicators accelerated in y/y terms in April. But this was due to a weak base for comparison from a year ago when Shanghai and several other cities went into lockdown. In seasonally... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Chinese economic growth at 2% – Revisiting our 2018 call 1685001600 Five years ago, we forecast that China’s trend economic growth would be as little as 2% by the end of this decade. At the time, it was a decidedly minority view.
China Economics Weekly Making sense of the reopening recovery After a string of underwhelming but inconclusive data releases, we should have a better sense of the strength of China’s post-zero-COVID rebound next week with the release of the April activity and... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) A widely-anticipated acceleration in credit growth didn’t materialise last month, suggesting that momentum may already be fading in China’s post-zero-COVID rebound. 11th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 35-month low, and consumer price inflation dropped to its smallest in more than two years. Although the impact of reopening pushed up services... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Dialling back our optimism about Chinese equities With China’s economic rebound losing momentum and investors’ attention shifting back to concerns about the country’s political and economic model we think the near-term prospects for Chinese equities... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports likely to remain soft China’s commodity imports were generally weak in April. We suspect that import volumes generally could soften a bit further as any reopening effect on commodity demand fades and export demand... 9th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Apr.) China’s export volumes partially reversed March’s jump last month. Shipments of most consumer goods declined due to weak global demand except for those of electric vehicles. Given the gloomy outlook... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
