China Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus needed, baby bust continues The initial policy response to the economy’s recent loss of momentum has been to cut interest rates. But on its own, this is unlikely to trigger a jump in household or corporate borrowing and spending... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (May) Retail sales and fixed investment undershot expectations, and the property sector struggled. Industrial output improved slightly but is still fairly subdued. And although the labour market remained... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Broad credit growth slowed sharply in May and has now reversed almost all its reopening recovery. This poses a downside risk to growth and strengthens the case for additional policy support. 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Jun.) The PBOC has lowered its policy rates for the first time since last summer, reflecting growing concerns among policymakers about the health of China’s recovery. Friday’s State Council meeting... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think that most EM currencies will fall back by year-end Emerging Market (EM) currencies have generally appreciated against the US dollar since the start of this month, and indeed since last October. However, we think that nearly all “major” EM currencies... 12th June 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Shift in risk appetite needed to revive property Rumoured plans to support housing demand by reducing the upfront cost of home purchases probably won’t be a game changer. New homes are already more affordable than they’ve ever been and yet... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 87-month low. Consumer price inflation edged up but remained depressed. Core inflation slipped slightly, suggesting that the immediate... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Is the Chinese economic recovery already over? 1686816000 The market optimism which greeted the end of zero-COVID restrictions has quickly given way to gloom after a string of disappointing data releases.
China Rapid Response China Trade (May) China’s exports contracted year-on-year in May for the first time in three months, with export volumes falling below their levels at the start of the year. And with the worst yet to come for many... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily OPEC+ cuts: another worrying sign for global markets OPEC+’s decision over the weekend to cut oil production for the second time this year adds to an already muddled picture for global markets. Three key points are worth highlighting. 5th June 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Don’t give up on the Chinese consumer just yet The pessimism around China’s consumer recovery is overdone in our view. The labour market is tightening, which should soon start to benefit young jobseekers and support income growth. And consumers... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to solid, if unexciting, demand China’s PMI surveys suggest that the economic recovery is ongoing, but the pace of growth has slowed. While a lower reading for construction activity is a negative for metals prices, the persistent... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (May) The PMI surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery was still ongoing in May. Waning fiscal support weighed on construction activity. But manufacturing output ticked up and the service sector is... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi unlikely to revisit last year’s lows The renminbi strengthened sharply against the US dollar in response to China’s move away from zero-COVID. But the currency has since reversed much of those gains and is now approaching 7.10/$, its... 30th May 2023 · 12 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Service sector keeps the recovery alive Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that, despite losing some momentum, the economic recovery was still making progress at the start of Q2. And we think there is still scope for further improvement... 29th May 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Unfinished homes, chipmaking woes Detailed housing sales data show that worries about developers’ ability to complete projects continue to hamper demand. And despite some progress, the number of stalled projects remains very large... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
