China Economics Weekly Consumer spending is back on track The Labour Day holiday was a key test of China’s consumer recovery. It passed with flying colours – domestic travel and tourism returned to normal, while retail sales look to have returned to the pre... 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Commodity prices to struggle in the next few months The key message from the latest China PMIs is that whilst China’s economy is likely to grow strongly this quarter, momentum is fading. This will be one factor weighing on commodity prices in the near... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Apr.) The latest survey data add to wider evidence that while China’s recovery remains robust, it is losing some momentum. In particular, the manufacturing PMIs fell below 50, suggesting that the reopening... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade and Inflation (Apr.) A simple average of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose slightly in April but this was almost entirely driven by a large jump in Thailand’s headline index to a record high. Weak global demand and... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Next in the spotlight: local government debt Investors sometimes talk about a ball of speculative money that rolls around China’s asset markets. There’s a ball of worry too, and it is rolling back into local government debt. The immediate... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly China rebound to boost emissions; EU targets shipping The pick-up in our China Activity Proxy in March suggests that carbon dioxide emissions from the country ended Q1 growing at the fastest year-on-year rate since mid-2021. With the economy now expected... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Financial flows, not trade, leading CNH expansion The renminbi surpassed the US dollar to become the most-commonly-used currency in China’s cross-border transactions for the first time last month. Part of the increase – the part that has received... 27th April 2023 · 11 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Q1 surge will push 2023 growth over 8% Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy bounced back rapidly in Q1, with growth since the start of the pandemic now broadly back in line with the official GDP data. And while the... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Takeaways from the detailed Q1 GDP breakdown The Q1 GDP figures left little doubt that China's economy is rebounding more quickly than most had anticipated. The detailed sectoral breakdown published a day later received less attention but... 21st April 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect strong gains for China’s equities this year Despite the generally muted market reaction to today’s strong data releases for China’s economy, we think the reopening rally in China’s equity market still has further to run this year. 18th April 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) GDP rebounded more quickly than expected in Q1 thanks to a rapid return to normality following last year’s virus disruptions. With consumer confidence on the mend and credit growth accelerating, there... 18th April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the recovery so far Mixed recent data have fuelled an inconclusive debate about the strength of China’s economic rebound and how much need there is for additional policy support. In our view, most evidence suggests that... 14th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports probably close to a peak China’s commodity imports generally rose strongly in March which we think reflects higher demand as a result of the re-opening of the economy. While April data may also be strong, we expect import... 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Mar.) China’s exports unexpectedly jumped last month. But we aren’t convinced that this rebound will be sustained given the still gloomy outlook for foreign demand. Imports fell short of expectations but... 13th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Event China Drop-In: How strong is the post-lockdown Chinese recovery? 1681804800 China’s Q1 “data dump” on 18th April will provide the broadest take so far of the economy’s performance following the end of zero-COVID restrictions.
