Capital Daily Troubled times continue for the yen and the renminbi With more poor economic data out of China and US yields again threatening to push towards new highs, it is little wonder that the yen and the renminbi have come under renewed pressure. While we still... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export pullback understated, foreign travel to pick up The export data published by China’s customs bureau appear to have become less reliable recently and subject to unusually large revisions. Alternative indicators suggest that the true level of exports... 11th August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) China’s bank loan growth fell to its lowest in seven months in July, while broad credit growth dropped to a record low. We expect further policy rate cuts and a spike in government bond issuance in... 11th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Deflation likely temporary but slowdown isn’t Consumer price inflation slipped into negative territory in July. But this probably won’t last more than a quarter or two and has less to do with the health of domestic demand than many think... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) CPI joined PPI in deflationary territory last month. But this was due to a sharp drop in food inflation caused by base effects. More importantly, core inflation rose to its highest since January and... 9th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Jul.) Chinese exports contracted in July by the most since the start of the pandemic. But the recent declines mostly reflect lower prices rather than volumes, which are still well above their pre-pandemic... 8th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Near-term fiscal boost, follow-up measures needed Local governments have been told to issue and spend their remaining special bond quotas by end-October, which will boost fiscal outlays in the near-term. But more needs to be done to prevent a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China’s property sector is increasingly state-led The property downturn has left state-owned developers the dominant players in a previously privately-led sector. The state is likely to continue playing a larger role as consolidation continues around... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s weakness due to further slide in trend growth We estimate that China’s trend rate of growth has slowed from 5.0% in 2019 to 3.0% now, based on our China Activity Proxy. This is a steeper deceleration than in the years leading up to the emergence... 2nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are grim reading for commodities demand China’s PMIs suggest that commodities demand has come completely off the boil. For the recent rally in industrial metals prices to be sustained, China’s policymakers will have to deliver on promises... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 23) China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of slipping into a recession. We think policymakers will provide enough stimulus to avoid this and deliver a modest... 31st July 2023 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Jul.) The PMI surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery continued to lose momentum in July. Downward pressure on manufacturing intensified, construction activity decelerated sharply, and services... 31st July 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Politburo keeps stimulus hopes alive The highlight of the week was Monday’s Politburo meeting, which struck a dovish tone and promised greater policy support. A lot will depend on the follow-through, and in this note we flag some areas... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery goes into reverse Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy contracted in June as the service sector spluttered. Policy support means the economy should return to growth before long. But the pace of... 27th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the jump in China’s stock market Chinese equities enjoyed one of their best days in years today, and we think they may continue to outperform equities elsewhere over the rest of this year. But the longer-term prospects for China’s... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
