Europe Economics Update SNB likely to cut rates by at least another 50bp While the SNB only cut the policy rate by 25bp today to 1.0%, the accompanying statement was very dovish and indicated that there are at least two more rate cuts on the way, probably in 25bp... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sept. 2024) The SNB’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 1.0% today shows that it prefers a gradual approach to policy loosening, but the accompanying statement indicates clearly that further cuts are on... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to match Fed’s bumper rate cut We think SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan will probably use his last meeting to once again surprise markets by cutting the policy rate by 50bp to 0.75%. Policymakers will be unhappy with the franc’s recent... 19th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Economy slowing again The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical... 18th September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2024) Switzerland’s sporting event-adjusted GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in over a year and slightly above our forecast of 0.4%. At the margin this may give the SNB some... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Strong franc opens door to FX purchases and rate cuts Recent safe haven flows into the franc may have prompted limited FX interventions by the SNB. But we think that the policy rate will remain its main policy tool, even for dampening the franc’s... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in July at 1.3%, keeping it below the SNB’s Q3 forecast of 1.5%. Reassuringly for policymakers, private services inflation fell for the first time in six... 2nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years. 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) Switzerland’s inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May, but concerningly for policymakers, private services inflation rose for the fourth time in five months. We think the increasing... 4th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB cuts rates again, but likely to be last one this year The SNB’s decision to cut the policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was probably more influenced by the appreciation of the franc over the last two months than any perceived easing in domestic inflation... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June. 2024) Today’s decision by the SNB to reduce its policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was correctly anticipated by two thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters. (We were in the minority anticipating a hold.) In... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to keep rates on hold for rest of the year The SNB is likely to keep rates on hold at 1.5% at its meeting next week as inflation in Q2 so far has been in line with the its forecast in March. Moreover, the latest data on wage growth were much... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (May) Switzerland’s inflation rate remained at 1.4% in May as an increase in rents was offset by a further fall in core goods prices. With inflation in line with the SNB’s forecast published in March and... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
