Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June. 2024) Today’s decision by the SNB to reduce its policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was correctly anticipated by two thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters. (We were in the minority anticipating a hold.) In... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to keep rates on hold for rest of the year The SNB is likely to keep rates on hold at 1.5% at its meeting next week as inflation in Q2 so far has been in line with the its forecast in March. Moreover, the latest data on wage growth were much... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (May) Switzerland’s inflation rate remained at 1.4% in May as an increase in rents was offset by a further fall in core goods prices. With inflation in line with the SNB’s forecast published in March and... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to cut rates; SNB to sell FX assets? The key event next week will be Thursday’s ECB meeting when we think the Bank will cut the deposit rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. But strong services inflation in May and strong wage growth in Q1 may... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risks to Swiss inflation skewed to the downside Many central banks are concerned about the fact that services inflation has remained too high. But we think the risks in Switzerland are skewed to the downside and, in our view, outweigh the upside... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (April) The jump in Switzerland’s inflation rate in April was largely due to increases in the volatile food and fuel components. While the data increase our confidence that the SNB will not cut interest rates... 2nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swiss economy not as strong as first meets the eye The resilience of Swiss GDP over the past two years has been largely due to the merchanting sector, which buys and sells goods without them ever entering Switzerland. Excluding that sector, the... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (March) The further fall in Swiss inflation in March reinforces our view that the SNB will cut rates by a further 50bp this year. We have pencilled in the next rate cut for September, but there is a growing... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB starts its loosening cycle, Norges Bank on hold The SNB under Chairman Thomas Jordan has never shied away from making big calls, so it was fitting that it surprised markets with a 25bp rate cut today, to 1.5%, only three weeks after Mr Jordan... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to lead the G10 central banks in rate cuts Inflation in Switzerland has surprised most other forecasters, including the SNB, this year by falling to just 1.2% in February, which was the ninth month in a row that it has been below 2%. We think... 14th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Switzerland CPI (Feb. 2024) The period of disinflation in Switzerland is close to an end, but with inflation likely to remain close to 1% for the foreseeable future we think policymakers will start lowering interest rates later... 4th March 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB patient, SNB eyeing early rate cut This week's data releases will have reinforced the view of ECB policymakers that they should be patient before beginning to loosen monetary policy. Indeed, the monthly pace of services inflation... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q4 2023.) The second successive 0.3% q/q increase in Swiss GDP in Q4 was better than the consensus and our own forecasts of 0.1% and we now think economic growth is likely to accelerate further in the coming... 29th February 2024 · 2 mins read
