Europe Economics Update Four things of note on the SNB this week The SNB has been uncharacteristically active this week, making a string of announcements about monetary policy, its balance sheet, minimum reserve requirement and lessons from the Credit Suisse... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) Swiss headline inflation remained unchanged in October at 1.7% and although the core rate rose for the first time in eight months we expect inflation to stay below 2% for the foreseeable future... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB on a high, Riksbank seeking bailout This week’s decision by the ECB to leave interest rates on hold is likely to be the first of many – we think rates will remain at their current levels until the second half of next year. Meanwhile... 27th October 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Stable Swiss politics supports the economic outlook Switzerland’s government looks set to remain largely unchanged after the federal elections this Sunday, and we do not expect a significant change in economic policy. But voters’ grievances about the... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surge in gas prices not yet a major inflation risk Even if it is sustained, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices over the past week would add only around 0.1%-pts to our euro-zone inflation forecast for the coming year and would not require... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What the bond market sell-off means for the euro-zone The bond market sell-off, and associated tightening of financial conditions, reinforces our view that the ECB has finished hiking. The market moves have been nowhere near big enough to prompt the ECB... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September.) The rise in Switzerland’s headline inflation rate in September was largely due to the increase in oil prices in recent months, which caused energy inflation to rise sharply. In contrast, core... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off highlights fiscal risks The increase in euro-zone bond yields earlier this week seems to have been mostly a function of shifting global sentiment rather than a response to news from Europe itself. But it is a reminder that... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising oil prices won’t cause the ECB to hike rates The increase in oil prices over the past few months will have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation, so it won't alter the outlook for monetary policy. We still expect that the ECB will keep its... 22nd September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s hold suggests rates have peaked The SNB’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 1.75% was a surprise. Although the Bank left the door open for further hikes, we think rates are now at their peak. And with inflation set to fall further... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sep. 2023) The SNB’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 1.75% was a big surprise, although it left the door open for further hikes. We do not expect any further increases in the policy rate as we expect... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sept. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggests the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3. We expect it to shrink further in Q4... 15th September 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A coin toss decision for the SNB On balance, we think the SNB will look through the recent low inflation and hike rates by 25bp one last time to 2.00%, given policymakers’ previous hawkish commentary. But with the economy stagnating... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q2.) Weak manufacturing and investment weighed on the Swiss economy in Q2, leaving GDP unchanged from the previous quarter. We think activity will be sluggish for the rest of the year as the effects of... 4th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker economy, lower inflation Data released this week are consistent with our view that euro-zone core inflation has passed its peak and that the economy will contract in Q3. And July’s euro-zone retail sales and German industrial... 1st September 2023 · 9 mins read
