Asset Allocation Update We think European equities will keep playing catch-up We expect strong returns from European equities in the next couple of years, but we think they will continue to underperform those in the US. 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Swiss disinflation largely complete, rate cuts incoming The disinflation story is largely over in Switzerland, and rising rent inflation may actually cause headline inflation to increase in the summer. However, this will not stop the SNB from cutting its... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Diverging inflation stories prop up dollar, for now The theme of the week has been one of diverging inflation stories which have helped boost the US dollar. These divergences came not just between economies (hot inflation data in the US and cold in the... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to use FX interventions more sparingly Chairman Thomas Jordan’s recent comments about the franc raise questions over whether the SNB might use FX interventions to loosen monetary conditions. But we think policymakers will use the policy... 13th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The large decrease in headline inflation in Switzerland in January means the inflation rate looks sure to undershoot the SNB’s Q1 forecast of 1.8%. Along with the fall in core inflation, we think this... 13th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB policymakers view patience as a virtue ECB policymakers have continued to push back against the prospect of rate cuts this spring. But they won't feel bound by that guidance if their assessment of the inflation outlook changes. So we still... 9th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Swiss policymakers may cut rates before ECB ECB policymakers have set out their stall ahead of next Thursday’s meeting and will continue to push back against expectations of early rate cuts – notwithstanding mounting evidence that the economy... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will... 10th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) The unexpected increase in Swiss inflation in December raises some doubt as to whether rates will be cut soon. However, we suspect that the headline rate will drop back sharply in January due to base... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dovish hold by SNB, policy loosening imminent Today’s SNB decision and statement were largely in line with expectations as the policy rate was held at 1.75% and policymakers removed any mention of FX sales. We think the latter decision signals... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2023) The SNB kept rates on hold at 1.75% at today’s policy meeting, but the monetary policy statement was dovish as policymakers placed less emphasis on selling FX assets and reduced their inflation... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tide turns towards rate cuts in Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan recently reiterated the Bank’s line that “we will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy further if necessary” but the actual question is whether policymakers will hesitate... 7th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How German and Swiss bond yields may measure up Although the spread between the 10-year German and Swiss government bond yields has widened significantly over the past couple of years, we think it will stay close to this level for a long while yet. 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation to 1.4% in November ensures that the SNB will not be at all tempted to raise interest rates in December, despite the Bank’s recent statements to the contrary... 4th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q3.) The 0.3% q/q increase in GDP was better than the consensus and our own forecasts (consensus: 0.1%; CE: 0.0%) but there was a downward revision to Q2 data from 0.0% to -0.1%. The main driver of growth... 1st December 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
