Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: end of Black Sea deal to add to near-term pain The end to the Black Sea grain deal has put Egypt’s vulnerability to rising global wheat prices back in the spotlight. Even if supply disruptions are avoided, higher wheat prices would add to strains... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Upside risks to our agricultural price forecasts In a week when the US dollar strengthened and the 2-year US Treasury yield rose, agricultural and energy commodity prices still climbed on the back of supply concerns. In the case of agriculturals... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly How will the rice export ban affect the economy? The partial ban on rice exports announced this week will have a small impact on India's trade balance and, similarly, it is unlikely to reduce inflation much either. The bigger concern for... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly A last-minute Black Sea grains deal is not guaranteed For the most part, commodity prices rose this week. A weaker US dollar in the wake of a lower-than-expected June CPI reading in the US was a key factor boosting prices. Not surprisingly, the prices of... 14th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño unlikely to fire up the price of all staples El Niño is coming but the picture is more nuanced than one of doom and gloom for global production of all crop types. For corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, larger harvests in some regions can outweigh... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain strong in June China’s commodity import volumes remained high in June, helped by the economic re-opening, but they were held back by softening input-related demand for the manufacture of goods for export. As... 13th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update El Niño risks concentrated in EMs The likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of this year adds to upside risks to global inflation and downside risks to activity. For the advanced economies, higher prices of agricultural... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil, UAE energy & mortgages, Morocco GDP The announcement by Saudi Arabia that it will roll over its voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut through August has led us to downwardly revise our GDP growth forecast for this year. The UAE has been much... 6th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Lumber price to ease back on demand weakness After fluctuating between $500 and $600 per 1,000 board feet for most of this year, we expect the US lumber price to fall from around $520 today to $475 by the end of the year due to weaker demand... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly US crude exports rise; China’s demand to drive prices There wasn’t a consistent direction to commodity prices this week. Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia rose, indicating stronger competition for LNG cargos. Meanwhile, most industrial metals prices... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to buck the downbeat trend We expect most commodity prices to struggle this year against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and deteriorating investor risk appetite. Energy-related commodities will be the exception. We expect... 29th June 2023 · 31 mins read
Commodities Weekly Growing upside risks to our grains price forecasts With the Fed still hinting at more interest rate increases, the dollar strengthened and contributed to declines across most commodity prices this week. One of the few prices that did increase was the... 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño puts your mochaccino at risk If the weather forecasters are right, El Niño conditions have arrived in the Pacific and are set to build over the next few months. The negative impact on agricultural production will depend upon the... 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly China stimulus a possible lifeline for metals demand Most prices rose this week, helped by a weaker dollar, stronger-than expected US retail sales in May and interest rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China. Natural gas prices rose particularly sharply... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand indicators to continue to drive prices for now The oil price ended the week flat despite Saudi Arabia pledging to cut output by 1m bpd in July at the OPEC+ meeting last weekend. Most other commodity prices rose, supported by China’s May trade data... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Investor pessimism may be running too deep Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand loomed large and the US dollar strengthened. We think that prices will continue to struggle over the next few months... 7th June 2023 · 13 mins read
