Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging...

31st July 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine?

Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might...

23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal...

27th June 2024 · 19 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Commodity prices to fall back

We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to...

27th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What La Niña means for Latin America

There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non...

17th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Attention turns towards the return of La Niña

A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. OPEC+’s decision to roll over its production cuts into Q3 will keep supply...

6th June 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards

The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi GDP growth will hinge on OPEC+ decision

After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC...

22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (May 2024)

We think that oil prices have further to fall, as we expect OPEC+ to gradually increase output later this year. Prices have recently fallen as worries that the conflict in the Middle East could affect...

8th May 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook

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Geopolitical risk may be ever-present in global commodity markets, but it’s arguably been an even bigger driver over the past year or so.

Commodities Focus

Fed rate cuts won’t send commodity prices soaring

The latest US CPI data may have dashed hopes of interest rate cuts as early as June, but looser monetary policy is still firmly on the cards late this year and over the course of next year. Lower...

16th April 2024 · 12 mins read

Commodities Update

A firm start to the year for China’s commodity imports

China’s energy and industrial metal imports were generally strong in the first quarter. We expect them to hold up well in the coming months as fiscal stimulus continues to support construction...

12th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Energy prices to cool, but metals to hold firm for now

We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent...

4th April 2024 · 33 mins read