Commodities China’s imports firing on all cylinders in May Growth in China’s commodity imports generally was strong in May, with a notable rise in crude oil imports. While the data are consistent with our above-consensus outlook for China’s growth this year... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ likely to stand pat It was a week of two halves, with prices initially falling before the passage of the US debt ceiling bill and a strong US May employment report saw prices recoup some of those losses later in the week... 2nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to solid, if unexciting, demand China’s PMI surveys suggest that the economic recovery is ongoing, but the pace of growth has slowed. While a lower reading for construction activity is a negative for metals prices, the persistent... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Data and debt ceiling to move prices next week Commodity prices generally fell this week, as investors’ expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate rose on concern about the persistence of high inflation. The dollar also strengthened... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly US data the key driver of prices next week Dealmaking was a major driver of commodity prices this week. The 11th hour extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative alleviated fears of Ukraine’s grain exports being cut off from world markets... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Demand concerns a lingering headwind for prices Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand have intensified and risk appetite has soured. We think prices will continue to struggle over the next few months as... 16th May 2023 · 13 mins read
Commodities Weekly Weak demand will weigh on prices for some time The demand backdrop for commodities appears weak. While oil prices rose this week, they remain low by recent standards at $70-75 per barrel. Industrial metal prices, which rallied late last year and... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities are likely to struggle for a while Most commodity prices, but especially energy and industrial metals, fell this week. Concern about demand in advanced economies, particularly in the US due to the banking sector problems, contributed... 5th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand concerns back on the menu Commodity prices generally fell earlier this week on the back of investors’ growing concerns about the outlook for commodities demand. Later in the week, the release of softer-than-expected US Q1 GDP... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices to be steered by developed markets next week After a positive start to the week on the back of China’s strong Q1 GDP data, commodity prices subsequently eased back on expectations of higher interest rates and worries about demand in advanced... 21st April 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF, COP28, Tunisia politics, Black Sea grain The latest transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco by the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will help meet the Kingdom meet its Vision 2030 goals, but it will not reduce the state’s dependency... 20th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices starting to look on borrowed time Commodity prices received a boost from expectations that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle and the weaker US dollar this week, but we think that it is only a matter of time before the... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar rush won’t last Global sugar prices have surged by over 20% since the start of the year as production estimates in several key producers have been downgraded. We think the supply picture is unlikely to change by much... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil will be scarcer than previously expected The surprise announcement last weekend by OPEC+ countries that they would make voluntary oil production cuts, even before the OPEC advisory committee met on Monday, pushed oil prices higher by about... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Futures Market Monitor (Apr. 2023) The surprise OPEC+ decision to cut oil production sent oil futures curves into steeper backwardation. This doesn’t necessarily mean that market participants see prices falling from here, but rather... 5th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Drought to push Argentina’s economy into deep recession The historic drought afflicting Argentina will cause a steeper contraction in GDP than most expect this year and intensify balance of payments strains by reducing export earnings to the tune of 2-3%... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
