Commodities Weekly Huge risks associated with China reopening The raft of inflation data and central bank policy decisions were key drivers of prices this week, but to some extent China stole the show. We now think that a dismantling of the zero-COVID policy is... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook The global recession isn’t done with commodities yet Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The World in 2023: The outlook for commodity prices We think most commodity prices will ease back in early 2023, at the height of the global recession and monetary tightening in many major economies. That said, we expect a relatively shallow recession... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Revising down our oil price forecasts for 2023 A few weeks ago, we flagged the growing downside risks to our oil price forecasts due to weak Chinese demand. Despite the loosening of China’s COVID restrictions since then, we think the end to the... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Falling Russian supply to keep oil prices high in 2023 We think slower global economic activity and a somewhat stronger US dollar will weigh on commodities prices in the coming months. However, the recession should prove relatively shallow and we expect... 5th December 2022 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Digesting the upside surprises to food inflation While food inflation has surprised to the upside in major DMs, it seems to be at or near a peak. We expect a combination of base effects and an easing of underlying price pressures to drag on food... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Watch “Food vs. Fuel” is back, but needn’t raise alarm Global food prices are at highs last reached in 2007-08 and 2011-12, when a sharp rise in global biofuel production sparked the “Food vs. Fuel” debate. In this Commodities Watch, we find that... 28th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Black Sea grain deal extension reduces risks to EMs Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine should help to keep a lid on wheat and corn prices over the coming months, reducing upward pressure on inflation in the emerging... 21st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly China COVID concerns weighing on prices Most prices fell this week as soaring COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns about the country’s commodity demand. Given the negative impact of COVID-related lockdowns on travel, it is no surprise... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Weak growth to weigh on Chinese agricultural imports We think the combination of subdued domestic activity and an economic downturn in most major economies will hurt demand for Chinese economic output in the coming months, prompting lower production and... 14th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Too soon to call a price rally Commodity prices surged late in the week on the back of a slump in the US dollar, a fall in US real yields and some easing of COVID-related restrictions in China. However, we doubt that this heralds... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Rubber prices unlikely to bounce back soon As the global economy enters recession, the outlook for natural rubber demand appears bleak. What’s more, stocks are already high. We expect prices to fall further in the near term, before some... 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly End of zero-COVID rumours likely to be a false dawn Most commodity prices rallied on Friday as rumours circulated that China was considering a relaxation of its zero-COVID policy. However, in the absence of any official statements to that effect and... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
