The recent rise in gilt yields has been almost as fast as the political furore over the cancellation of the northern leg of HS2 this week. The 30-year gilt yield rose from 4.68% at the start of last week to a 20-year high of 5.06% at the time of writing …
6th October 2023
We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Headline and core inflation should keep falling, but the labour market will remain tight, keeping wage growth …
Wage pressures easing This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The strong headline employment gain in September was entirely due to a rebound in educational services employment, with employment elsewhere edging down. …
Despite strong payrolls, wage growth continues to slow The surprisingly strong 336,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September adds to the evidence on real activity that the economy is holding up well despite the headwind from higher interest rates. …
What to make of the bond market sell-off? We have covered the implications of the bond sell-off for the global economy here . Three additional points are worth making in relation to the euro-zone. First, the increase in yields and associated tightening of …
Limited macro fallout from weakening rupee The sell-off in global bond markets has caused currencies, including the rupee, to come under pressure this week. The rupee is now at 83.2/$, hovering close to record lows. It could even have posted new lows but, …
PBOC not letting its guard down The yield on 10-year US Treasuries surged to a 16-year high this week. We covered the potential implications for the global economy here . But one of the more immediate consequences has been downward pressure on many EM …
Becoming liable for the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) would nullify any cost-reduction benefit from a lower carbon price for UK companies that trade closely with the EU. That said, the CBAM would have less impact on domestically-focused …
The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has driven the rise in long-term sovereign bond yields and …
Singapore’s struggling economy Singapore’s economy has struggled in recent quarters, and only narrowly avoided falling into recession in Q2. Preliminary GDP figures to be published on Friday are likely to show the weakness continued in the third …
The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in inflation. Indeed, it even raised the possibility of open-market bond sales to drain excess liquidity. There is a significant …
Near-term momentum in house prices is downwards The sixth consecutive monthly decline in the Halifax House Price Index in September leaves it significantly more downbeat than the Nationwide figures about near-term momentum in house prices. Given the …
RBI stands firm in fight against inflation The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in headline inflation. There is still a significant risk of the easing cycle that we …
One more hike for good measure On Tuesday new RBA Governor Michele Bullock began her tenure not with a bang but with a whimper, by leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.10%. What’s more, the statement accompanying the policy decision gave few indications …
Bond market sell-off pushes yen to one-year low The big event this week was the sharp fall in the yen after it breached 150 against the dollar while Tokyo was asleep in the early hours of Wednesday. Government officials have refused to comment on …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Regular wage growth set to remain strong Regular earnings growth remained strong in August and with the labour market set to tighten, it could yet accelerate further. Growth in …
Sub-Saharan African central banks are unlikely to follow their peers in other EMs in cutting interest rates soon. With inflation falling more slowly, alongside balance of payment and public debt strains, interest rates will stay high for longer. Nigeria …
5th October 2023
The trend of rapid increases in industrial metals supply this year is likely to unwind over the next few years for copper, but we think nickel supply growth will remain robust. We think that divergence will be a key reason why the price of copper will …
While we think the risk of a material increase in euro-zone “peripheral” spreads has risen, our central forecast remains that they will end 2024 a bit below their current levels. Last week, long-dated euro-zone peripheral bond yields reached highs not …
The ‘higher for longer’ narrative on interest rates that is baked into market pricing is at odds with evidence of widespread falls in inflation. Higher oil prices mean that fuel inflation will be a bit higher than seemed likely a few months ago. But the …
A laundry list of explanations has been provided for the surge in the term premia of Treasuries since mid-year, which has accounted for more than ~100bp rise in the 10-year yield based on the ACM model estimate. (See Chart 1.) One explanation that doesn’t …
Al-Sisi confirms his running; UAE opens swap line Egypt’s incumbent President al-Sisi has confirmed he will run for re-election in December in a race that he is almost certain to win. The policy paralysis induced by this election has prompted central …
Surge in exports an upside risk to preliminary GDP estimate Exports rose by far more than imports in August, even as the latter benefited more from the fading disruption from the earlier BC port strikes. That suggests there are upside risks to the …
Q3 exports rebound, but outlook remains weak The trade deficit narrowed to a three-year low of $58.3bn in August, from $64.7bn, as exports increased by $4.1bn or (+1.6% m/m) and imports declined by $2.3bn (-0.7% m/m). The gain in exports was driven by a …
NBR holding firm in inflation fight The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today, and we expect policy to remain on hold into next year. The NBR will be the last in Central and Eastern Europe to start cutting …
Rising food prices have already led to upside inflation surprises in parts of Asia, and central banks in the region are likely to ease policy later than their EM peers. But inflation should eventually resume its downward path and, once it does, policy …
Equities in the Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods industry have fared quite poorly recently, which has weighed on the luxury-heavy French stock market. But while they might underperform a bit more in the near-term, we suspect that they will recover next …
We expect any rise in bond yields to be gradual and don’t believe it will create major economic or market dislocation. But there are risks that the Bank of Japan loses control over longer-term yields . A rapid surge in bond yields would threaten the …
The central bank (CBSL) today cut interest rates by a further 100bps. With inflation low and the economy still very depressed, further easing is likely over the coming months. Today’s 100bps cuts take the lending and deposit rates to 10% and 11% …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMI falls below 50 as commercial balance plunges The decline in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 50.8 in August to 45.0 in September took it below the 50 …
We think the yields of 10-year government bonds in Australia, New Zealand and Canada will diverge from the yield of 10-year US Treasuries – which they have tracked very closely this year – over time, with bonds in all three countries outperforming those …
The latest activity data from Korea were downbeat. Although industrial production grew strongly, the manufacturing PMIs, along with the export figures and retail sales data, all point to continued weakness. However, with inflation rising again last month, …
Australian economy braces for weaker growth Data released today reaffirm our view that the Australian economy is on shaky ground. To start with, trade data suggest that net exports will have become a drag on GDP growth in Q3. The trade surplus widened …
The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous financial crises that have been caused by sharp moves in …
4th October 2023
IWG’s record revenues in the first half of this year may suggest that flexible offices are the answer for many firms as hybrid working cements itself as the ‘new normal’. However, we don’t think current flexible offices currently offer the right product …
Food price inflation is now falling back, which will help boost supermarket profits. That means the recent underperformance of the supermarket sector relative to all-retail will soon come to an end. Total returns are set to turn positive in 2023 and by …
While government bond yields have stabilised today, their sharp rises over recent weeks are increasingly concerning. We think there are four key observations to make at this point. First, long-term yields have been rising steadily since mid-July, but have …
Falls in the value of China’s recorded holdings of US Treasuries tell us little about whether China is divesting from the dollar. A broader look at the data suggests that it isn’t, despite geopolitical pressure to decouple. And while we don’t have timely …
Overview – With economic activity weakening, we expect rental growth to continue trending downwards over the next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched despite property yields continuing to rise at a steady pace. As a result, we have …
Slowing momentum in activity, the recent decline in employment, and the sharp falls in core CPI and services inflation in August are clear signs that higher interest rates are weighing more heavily on the economy. This strengthens our view that the mild …
Surveys consistent with moderate growth The small fall in the ISM services index to 53.6 in September, from 54.5, contradicted the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index. Nevertheless, the weighted average of the two ISM surveys are still consistent with …
NBP cuts again, but rates won’t fall as far as most expect The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) decision to cut interest rates again today, from 6.00% to 5.75%, suggests that the doves are ruling the roost on the MPC, but we think that interest rates …
The resilience of investment in the euro-zone to higher interest rates and slowing economic growth at the start of the year appears to have been driven in part by the gradual clearing of backlogs in various industries. This has now come to an end and we …
Saudi Arabia’s labour market has strengthened markedly in its post-pandemic recovery and the headline figures mask a dramatic shift in the size and composition of the labour force. In particular, social reforms have helped the female participation rate to …
High mortgage rates crush home purchase demand Rising mortgage rates caused mortgage applications for home purchase to slip to a fresh 28-year low in September. With mortgage rates edging above 7.5% in the last week of the month as Treasury yields surged …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone headed for recession The drop in retail sales in August and weakness in the final PMIs for September are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will fall …
While some measures of optimism have been improving, the majority of the survey evidence suggests the economy is weakening and the chances of the mild recession we have been forecasting have increased. The 0.5% m/m fall in real GDP in July and the decline …
With its assessment of the balance of risks broadly unchanged, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at its meeting today. Although the Bank will likely retain its tightening bias, we continue to believe that the official cash rate is at its …
RBNZ’s next move will be down Although the RBNZ will retain its tightening bias, we believe that the official cash rate is at its cyclical peak. All 27 of the analysts polled by Reuters, including ourselves, had expected the Bank to leave the OCR …
Office-based jobs are on course to underperform total jobs this year for the first time since 2009 and there is a growing risk this could be repeated in 2024, though that is not yet our central forecast. At the metro level, we expect differentials to …
3rd October 2023
