Filtered by Topic: The Fracturing of the Global Economy Use setting The Fracturing of the Global Economy
Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated), then Vietnam should benefit from a new round of Trump …
18th March 2024
A few hot(ish) US inflation prints and the market has become spooked about how easily the Federal Reserve can get back to its 2% target. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses …
15th March 2024
“New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data …
14th March 2024
Reshoring still more myth than reality Although it has been a priority for the last three administrations, the reshoring of lost manufacturing jobs remains more myth than reality. There has been a significant boom in the construction of hi-tech …
12th March 2024
The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials …
4th March 2024
Neil Shearing has been in the Middle East and Asia, talking to clients about the macro outlook. In meetings from Dubai to Singapore to Hong Kong, some questions kept coming up again and again and, in this week’s episode, he goes through them with David …
1st March 2024
Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of the 4ppt drop in DM headline CPI inflation last year, …
26th February 2024
For all the blustering about trade wars, the fact is that Donald Trump’s punitive actions against China during his presidency didn’t do much to hurt its economy. But it’ll be a very different story if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to …
23rd February 2024
Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if he is elected again. And the factors that cushioned …
Indonesians go to the polls on 14 th February to elect a successor to Joko Widodo, the president popularly known as Jokowi, who pushed through some key reforms to secure the country’s long-term economic future. Will his successor build on those efforts …
1st February 2024
Trump’s new tariffs would accelerate global fracturing If he wins this year’s presidential election, Donald Trump’s plans for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China specifically would subtract up to 1.5% from …
31st January 2024
Egypt needs enhanced IMF deal urgently Egypt’s foreign currency woes remained in the spotlight this week, highlighting the importance of getting an enhanced IMF deal over the line in order to avoid a disorderly balance of payments crisis. This week …
18th January 2024
The outsized attention paid to Taiwan’s presidential election this past weekend is in part a reflection of the breakdown in relations between the US and China and the 21 st century’s big geopolitical question of which of these countries will dominate the …
15th January 2024
With US and UK strikes on Houthis in the headlines and Taiwanese voting in their flashpoint election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpicks what the now- clichéd idea that we live in a “more dangerous world” actually means for thinking through macro …
12th January 2024
We still think that China’s equities could fare well relative to others in the near term, but also that their longer-run prognosis is fairly bleak. The challenging times for China’s stock market have continued today, with the country’s major indices …
10th January 2024
Note: W e held a client briefing straight after the election weekend to discuss what the vote means for Taiwan and the global economy. View the on-demand recording here . China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s …
The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India over the past year was in part a consequence of the rise in global interest rates and the worsening global economic backdrop. But it was also due to a clampdown on the roundtripping …
9th January 2024
The optimism about Mexico’s economic prospects from the “nearshoring” of supply chains looks overdone in our view. Sectors where Mexico is already well established, such as autos and some electronics products, stand to benefit. But without major reforms …
8th January 2024
Note: Join our post-Taiwan election online briefing on Monday, 15th January to find out what the results mean for its economy and for US-China relations. Register here for the 20-minute session. In a busy electoral calendar, seven countries in Emerging …
3rd January 2024
In a busy year for elections worldwide, Taiwan’s is likely to be among the most consequential. 2023 was probably Taiwan’s weakest year of economic growth since the Global Financial Crisis – and the coming year isn’t likely to be much better as external …
2nd January 2024
Vietnam in the “lean US camp” Vietnam this week played host to President Xi Jinping of China and in doing so became the only country in the world this year to have received state visits from the leaders of both the US and China. During Xi’s visit, the …
15th December 2023
Tensions between the Philippines and China have once again flared up in the South China Seas. However, the fact that the Philippines is not closely integrated into China’s economy means the economic fallout from the deterioration in relations with China …
11th December 2023
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing warns the potential threat to fiscal positions from higher rates is “perhaps the most important question hanging over the outlook for the next couple of years”. In this episode, he speaks to Head of Research Vicky …
3rd December 2023
Tensions within OPEC+ rise as threat of cut looms OPEC+ was meant to be in the spotlight this weekend but, in a surprise move, the meeting has been delayed until Thursday. The slide in oil prices and the Israel-Hamas conflict suggest that output quotas …
23rd November 2023
Markets are continuing to debate “recession or no recession” but, as Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder in this latest episode, the debate is too binary and fails to take into account the different types of recession that the monetary …
17th November 2023
A thawing in China/US tensions could, in our view, help “risky” assets in China for a while by reducing the “China risk premium” that seems to have emerged. But we doubt it would fully reverse the recent underperformance of China’s equity markets relative …
16th November 2023
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
Central bankers have a tough task when it comes to communicating with markets – just ask the Bank of England’s Huw Pill, who started the week hinting at rate cuts and ended it with an insistence that the current setting has to remain in place to quash …
10th November 2023
The splintering of the world economy into competing US and China-aligned blocs is dominating the macro and financial and commodities markets outlook. But how is this fracturing process evolving, which parts of the economy are most vulnerable, and what do …
8th November 2023
The past few years have seen Saudi Arabia continue to move away from the US orbit and, as part of our work on global fracturing, we no longer consider Saudi to be unaligned between the US and China. Instead, we now think that it leans more towards …
7th November 2023
Over half of cross-border settlement now in RMB Earlier this week, the People’s Bank published its annual report on renminbi internationalisation. The message from the 84-page document is that global use of China’s currency has been gaining momentum …
3rd November 2023
Foreign direct investment into China, as measured by the balance of payments data, has collapsed. It is tempting to pin this on global fragmentation or a loss of confidence in China’s economic prospects. But the key driver appears to be more prosaic: the …
30th October 2023
The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased the uncertainty around the economic and financial market outlook, but in most scenarios is unlikely to generate a sustained hit to major asset markets. …
26th October 2023
An intense flurry of diplomatic activity last week laid bare the fault lines of a fracturing global economy. In the Middle East, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and Rishi Sunak made separate visits to Israel to show their support for the country following Hamas’s …
23rd October 2023
5% Treasury yields, geopolitics vs the Fed, China’s dollar dilemma, an AI stock bubble and more …
20th October 2023
Falls in the value of China’s recorded holdings of US Treasuries tell us little about whether China is divesting from the dollar. A broader look at the data suggests that it isn’t, despite geopolitical pressure to decouple. And while we don’t have timely …
4th October 2023
Talk of “dollarisation” has recently re-emerged, despite broader moves in the EM world to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar. Indeed, the fact that Argentina is considering adopting the dollar underscores that the greenback will remain the currency …
3rd October 2023
Infrastructure remains a major weakness Indonesia’s first high-speed train line is due to become operational this Sunday, when a WHOOSH bullet train departs the Indonesian capital of Jakarta for the provincial capital of Bandung, 88 miles away. Journey …
29th September 2023
This is an excerpt from our CE Spotlight series on AI. The whole series can be viewed here . A year ago, China was widely held to be a – perhaps the – global leader in AI. It has an online population larger than the US and Europe combined. Ubiquitous …
26th September 2023
There’s little evidence in the investment and trade data so far to back up the commonly-cited narrative that Mexico is experiencing a “nearshoring” boom. The one sector where there are some signs of this is industrial real estate, which suggests that it’s …
12th September 2023
The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the statement was light on explicit policies, calls to increase …
11th September 2023
Huawei's chip breakthrough The launch of Huawei’s new phone, the Mate 60 Pro, has sparked a debate over the effectiveness of US export controls that were tightened last year, restricting the sale to China of machinery needed to produce sub-18nm chips. The …
8th September 2023
Time for a new acronym Earlier today it was confirmed that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran, Argentina, and Ethiopia were all being invited to join the BRICS bloc and, while this is unlikely to have major economic effects in the near term, the possible …
24th August 2023
China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning ahead of this week’s BRICS summit will provide some …
21st August 2023
One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher share of goods from EMs, mainly Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, …
19th July 2023
Stronger RMB by year-end The PBOC’s Q2 Monetary Policy Report, published last Friday, included new language pledging to “prevent large fluctuations in the exchange rate”. Then, with the renminbi approaching 7.3/$ at the start of this week, the PBOC pushed …
7th July 2023
At first glance, there’s little sign of friend-shoring among Japanese firms as they have directed a rising share of their outward foreign direct investment at China. However, this largely reflects China’s rising economic heft and firms are reducing their …
26th June 2023
Indian manufacturing to benefit by leaning to US The sweeping agreements on trade and defence announced during Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US this week underline that India’s government and firms increasingly see their interests as favouring …
23rd June 2023
A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear direction. And even if there is a thaw in political …
20th June 2023
Preventing large-scale leaks of methane from Turkmenistan’s creaking infrastructure would be a welcome sign of emissions-cutting efforts broadening out from carbon dioxide to include other harmful greenhouse gases too. But while Turkmenistan has become …
8th June 2023
