Filtered by Topic: Global economic fracturing Use setting Global economic fracturing
The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China . Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries that have closer economic ties with the US would still …
31st March 2025
The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union. This would radically alter the shape of the fractured …
4th March 2025
President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon’s case, by reaching out to China). But while this may …
27th February 2025
This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for Ukraine under Trump is likely to come with strings …
26th February 2025
Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here ). What are the key takeaways from the election itself? The CDU’s leader, Friedrich Merz will be the next …
24th February 2025
Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more concentrated in emerging markets more aligned with China. The …
19th February 2025
The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to the early-2010s was instead an era of globalisation: most …
7th January 2025
Uruguay‘s election on Sunday is unlikely to change the path of economic policy but will have big implications for relations with China. Arguably more important than the election itself is the outcome of the pension referendum taking place at the same time …
23rd October 2024
The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among existing members, and concerns (for some) about …
15th October 2024
Latin America has played an important role in absorbing China’s export surge, which is generating concern among local policymakers. But the response is likely to vary across the region. Governments in Mexico and some smaller Central American countries …
A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a big risk to the health of the “AI bubble” in the US …
11th October 2024
In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is that, after a nascent recovery in the first half of …
19th September 2024
The US is moving to limit the de minimis tariff exemption that has supported a surge in low value shipments from China over recent years. Only a subset of the roughly 8% of China’s exports to the US that are currently tariff-exempt would be at risk under …
13th September 2024
A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and (possibly) a global retreat from free trade. All of this would …
12th September 2024
The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it will leave China’s hi-tech industry reliant on foreign …
9th September 2024
Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region. Relations with China are, for the most part, likely to remain …
4th September 2024
Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic weakness. As long as the process is gradual, this …
3rd September 2024
Although the EU is making progress in expanding its semiconductor production capacity, including through a new plant in Dresden, it is still a long way behind the US and Asia and is unlikely to catch up anytime soon. This will keep the EU reliant on …
23rd August 2024
China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way for the US and its allies to shore up their own …
21st August 2024
Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs tactically courting investment from China to put …
13th August 2024
Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have struggled. We expect this divergence to continue over …
10th July 2024
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
The tariffs announced today on US imports from China won’t cause much direct economic damage since trade in the affected goods is already low. But US economic sanctions on China seem to act like a ratchet: they only ever get tighter. In many areas that …
14th May 2024
The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a bigger impact on imports of Chinese-made batteries, …
Europe will raise barriers to trade and investment with China in the coming months and years. But policymakers will try to balance conflicting objectives so the result may well be a gradual rather than sudden increase in protectionism with measures …
7th May 2024
The anti-dumping duties that the EU is likely to impose on Chinese imports in the coming months will have little macroeconomic impact. But more goods will be targeted in the next couple of years with significant implications for some sectors and …
30th April 2024
Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated), then Vietnam should benefit from a new round of Trump …
18th March 2024
“New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data …
14th March 2024
Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of the 4ppt drop in DM headline CPI inflation last year, …
26th February 2024
Note: W e held a client briefing straight after the election weekend to discuss what the vote means for Taiwan and the global economy. View the on-demand recording here . China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s …
10th January 2024
The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India over the past year was in part a consequence of the rise in global interest rates and the worsening global economic backdrop. But it was also due to a clampdown on the roundtripping …
9th January 2024
Note: Join our post-Taiwan election online briefing on Monday, 15th January to find out what the results mean for its economy and for US-China relations. Register here for the 20-minute session. In a busy electoral calendar, seven countries in Emerging …
3rd January 2024
Tensions between the Philippines and China have once again flared up in the South China Seas. However, the fact that the Philippines is not closely integrated into China’s economy means the economic fallout from the deterioration in relations with China …
11th December 2023
Foreign direct investment into China, as measured by the balance of payments data, has collapsed. It is tempting to pin this on global fragmentation or a loss of confidence in China’s economic prospects. But the key driver appears to be more prosaic: the …
30th October 2023
This is an excerpt from our CE Spotlight series on AI. The whole series can be viewed here . A year ago, China was widely held to be a – perhaps the – global leader in AI. It has an online population larger than the US and Europe combined. Ubiquitous …
17th October 2023
Falls in the value of China’s recorded holdings of US Treasuries tell us little about whether China is divesting from the dollar. A broader look at the data suggests that it isn’t, despite geopolitical pressure to decouple. And while we don’t have timely …
4th October 2023
Talk of “dollarisation” has recently re-emerged, despite broader moves in the EM world to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar. Indeed, the fact that Argentina is considering adopting the dollar underscores that the greenback will remain the currency …
3rd October 2023
There’s little evidence in the investment and trade data so far to back up the commonly-cited narrative that Mexico is experiencing a “nearshoring” boom. The one sector where there are some signs of this is industrial real estate, which suggests that it’s …
12th September 2023
The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the statement was light on explicit policies, calls to increase …
11th September 2023
China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning ahead of this week’s BRICS summit will provide some …
21st August 2023
One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher share of goods from EMs, mainly Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, …
19th July 2023
At first glance, there’s little sign of friend-shoring among Japanese firms as they have directed a rising share of their outward foreign direct investment at China. However, this largely reflects China’s rising economic heft and firms are reducing their …
26th June 2023
A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear direction. And even if there is a thaw in political …
20th June 2023
Preventing large-scale leaks of methane from Turkmenistan’s creaking infrastructure would be a welcome sign of emissions-cutting efforts broadening out from carbon dioxide to include other harmful greenhouse gases too. But while Turkmenistan has become …
8th June 2023
In a fracturing global economy, India stands out as a prime location for the “friend-shoring” of manufacturing supply chains out of China. The manufacturing powerhouses of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are best-placed to benefit from this shift. But a handful of …
23rd May 2023
South Africa has traditionally sought to be non-aligned and, in our ‘ mapping decoupling ’ work, we placed it in neither the US nor the China camp. But recent developments suggest that it could be leaning towards the latter. If that’s the case, it might …
16th May 2023
The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting India on board with China would be difficult. And if the …
4th May 2023
The increasingly diverse array of creditors to debt-distressed EM governments – and the difficulties in getting China and Western lenders to see eye to eye – is already gumming up sovereign debt restructurings. And despite some positive noises from the …
17th April 2023
The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran adds to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which may help to reduce risk premia in financial assets in the region as well as the oil market. Tensions will not …
13th March 2023
Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. We have highlighted in our Spotlight series that the …
6th March 2023
