Dodging large tariffs Governments across Latin America are likely to be breathing sighs of relief following US President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday. Mexico will remain subject to the duties announced through March which contained large …
4th April 2025
Direct hit from Trump tariffs to be limited African economies will, for the most part, be relatively unaffected by US President Trump’s tariff announcement this week, at least directly. But it may cause indirect harm through lower commodity prices. And …
Asian economies were hit with some of the highest “reciprocal” tariffs by the US. (See Chart 1.) Our initial response is here , and more of our coverage can be found on this page . Chart 1: “Reciprocal” Tariffs Sources : White House, Capital Economics …
President Trump’s decision to hit the EU with a 20% tariff on all imports has roiled European markets – the Euro Stoxx is down more than 7% since the announcement – and pose a growing risk to the global and European economies. Our forecast before the …
With President Trump announcing reciprocal tariffs of 34% and 20% on all US imports from China and the European Union respectively this week, the news that UK goods exports to the US will be subject to the minimum 10% “baseline” tariff from 5 th April …
The aftermath of “Liberation Day” It was notable that most commodities received exemptions from the latest round of US tariffs. Nonetheless, commodity prices have fallen sharply on the back of global growth concerns. See here for our full assessment of …
Near-term hit from tariffs for India won’t be big Our response to the Liberation Day tariff announcements includes analysis of the global macro impact here , the financial market impact here , online briefings that can be viewed on demand here and various …
More policy support may be forthcoming Although the RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, it sounded a lot more dovish than it did in February. Indeed, it significantly toned down its concerns about upside inflation risks and the dangers of prematurely …
Tankan consistent with further tightening Compared to other Asian economies, the 24% US tariff on imports from Japan announced this week looks rather modest. Nonetheless, the chances that the Bank of Japan will hike rates in May as we’re forecasting have …
MENA can’t escape Trump’s trade war The Executive Order signed by US President Trump yesterday brought a flat 10% tariff on all countries’ exports to the US with an additional reciprocal rate for some economies. While the Middle East may be less …
3rd April 2025
Australian house price growth remained soft in March, amid still-weak housing demand. Although the RBA’s easing cycle could help deliver a shift in momentum later this year, stretched affordability is likely to constrain the strength of the rebound. Much …
1st April 2025
The recent scrapping of the carbon tax in Canada shows that the political pushback against climate policy is certainly not just confined to the United States. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of the death of climate policy are greatly exaggerated; …
31st March 2025
Despite President Trump’s decision to jump the gun with tariffs on the auto sector this week (ahead of next week’s widely trailed announcement on 2 nd April), the dollar is ending the week broadly flat on net. In part, that may be on account of the damage …
28th March 2025
Motor vehicle tariffs to boost inflation The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on most motor vehicle and some parts imports is an upside risk to our inflation forecasts. As a reminder, our forecasts have long been based on the assumption that Trump would …
Hopes of making it a week without any new tariff news were dashed on Wednesday when President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on motor vehicle and parts imports from April 3 rd . Despite accounting for 10% of Canada’s goods exports to the US, the hit …
With all the major business surveys for March now published, it is clear that while sentiment in the euro-zone has jumped, activity is still growing slowly at best. The more sentiment-driven ZEW and Sentix indices recorded big increases but the Composite …
Trump’s auto tariffs to deal limited blow to SA South Africa finds itself in the firing line from US President Trump’s auto tariffs, but the macro impact will be limited and other developments over the past week have been more positive for the country’s …
Red hot, red metal As it stands, there is still no clarity on when, or indeed if , the US administration will announce tariffs on copper imports. The US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, ostensibly has until November to prepare his report on …
Tariffs – UK still not very exposed The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs on 2 nd April will dominate next week. The UK has mostly flown under the radar of Trump’s tariffs and its economy is naturally less exposed than others – our Trade War Dashboard …
In a further escalation of his trade war, US President Trump on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on assembled motor vehicles and some key components: engines and engine parts, transmissions and powertrain parts, and electrical components. (See our initial …
Autos now in the crosshairs The Trump administration’s announcement of a 25% import tariff on autos and some auto parts will have a particularly large impact on Hungary and Slovakia. Our detailed response on Thursday to the tariff news can be found here . …
Exports will take a hit soon The US vehicle tariffs announced this week will do little damage to China as its auto exports to the US account for less than 0.05% of GDP. But the “ reciprocal tariffs ” that President Trump is due to announce on Wednesday …
Autos in the firing line Donald Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25% tariffs on all automotive imports into the US from 3 rd April could be a big deal for parts of Asia. Korea and Japan are the most vulnerable. Exports of these products to the US …
Concessions to Trump may not prove enough All eyes are now on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff plans, due to be unveiled on Wednesday 2 nd April. There is still huge uncertainty around what form reciprocal tariffs will take. The administration …
RBA will cut two more times this year Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed today that the next general election will be held on 3 rd May. The announcement comes closely on the heels of the government’s 2025/26 Budget , which includes an …
Time to act decisively has come The US this week announced a 25% tariff on auto imports and Japan will be among those economies most affected. (See here .) While PM Ishiba has said that “all options are on the table” when it comes to Japan’s response, our …
Egypt: a wider budget deficit, but tight fiscal stance Egypt’s cabinet approved the FY2025/26 Budget this week which showed that a primary surplus will be maintained, reiterating that policymakers will stick to the tight fiscal stance that will help to …
27th March 2025
The dollar is ending the week broadly flat on net, continuing its stabilisation after February’s sell-off. With the latest round of central bank policy announcements in the rear view mirror (having brought no major surprises) and the Trump …
21st March 2025
Inflation at risk of takeoff On Tuesday we learned that headline inflation jumped to 2.6% in February, from 1.9%. While a rise had been expected given the resumption of GST in the middle of last month, broader price increases elsewhere in the economy …
With the Fed almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the real focus was on how FOMC participants would update their economic forecasts to fit the policy course being charted by the new Trump administration. In the end, policymakers …
Structural weakness weighs on long-run outlook While China’s treasury yields have picked up in recent weeks, we don’t think that the trend decline of the last decade is over. We expect China’s 10-year government bond yield to fall below Japan’s this year, …
A pause for thought? The Bank of England was never going to do anything but continue the cut-hold-cut-hold pattern and keep interest rates unchanged at 4.50% this week. But the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) hawkish tone suggests it is preparing to …
Colombia: public finance risks back to the fore The resignation of Colombia’s finance minister Diego Guevara after just over three months in office has thrown the Andean nation into renewed disarray and raises big questions about the outlook for the …
Kenya and the IMF agree to disagree Kenya and the IMF abandoned talks over the ninth review of the country’s existing financing programs this week and, while a new deal is in the offing, public debt concerns are likely to build. It’s been clear for some …
Gold smashes through $3k In what feels a lot like déjà vu at this point, gold set yet another record high this week, this time as it smashed through the $3,000 per ounce mark. The financial press have linked the latest leg up in the price over the last …
Heightened military threat… but stronger GDP The rise in optimism about the euro-zone economy over the past few weeks has been remarkable. The ZEW index of investor sentiment in Germany saw one of the biggest increases on record in March. (See Chart 1.) …
Erdogan alarms investors The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency. Events are in flux at the moment, but there are three takeaways. The first is that the …
Equity jump unlikely to be start of sustained rally At the time of writing, India’s benchmark Sensex stock index has risen by 4% this week, making it its best week in almost three years. The big picture, however is that the Sensex is still 11% off its …
BoK’s dovish minutes This week’s publication of the minutes from the Bank of Korea’s February meeting , at which it cut rates for a third time in four meetings, show the Bank is becoming increasingly worried about the poor growth outlook. The concern was …
Foreign student arrivals not a gamechanger Yesterday the ABS published data showing that Australia’s population growth slowed from 2% y/y in Q2 to 1.8% y/y in Q3. That slowdown was driven primarily by easing net overseas migration: on a 12-month basis, …
Export volumes jump the most on record While export values have surged in recent years as the weaker exchange rate lifted the yen-value of shipments and firms passed on soaring input costs, the same can’t be said for export volumes, which have tread water …
Kuwait’s debt law marks a new era for fiscal policy A new public debt law is set to be passed in Kuwait in the near future allowing for the government to finance budget deficits more sustainably. In 2017, Kuwait’s authorisation to issue or refinance debt …
20th March 2025
The dollar has stabilised after its historic tumble last week, with the DXY index set to end broadly flat on the week. At the margin, the greenback was lifted by relatively hot CPI and PPI data this week, which we think point to a 0.35% rise in the core …
14th March 2025
SA 2025 Budget: will a compromise be reached? South Africa’s budget was finally delivered this week, but without the DA’s support. There are enough reasons to think that a compromise within the GNU will eventually be brokered, but it will still need to …
Prime Minister Starmer’s announcements this week to abolish both NHS England and the Payment Systems Regulator are the government’s latest initiatives aimed at boosting productivity and, in turn, improving the UK’s medium-term economic prospects. It’s …
Will high inflation or weak growth win out? Brazil’s central bank is all but certain to follow through with a clearly-signalled 100bp hike in the Selic rate to 14.25% next week, so all attention will be on the statement: whether it includes forward …
Trump torments Tiff The Bank of Canada’s decision to lower its policy rate by a further 25bp, to 2.75%, at its meeting on Wednesday was largely expected given the growing downside risks to the economy from US tariffs. While the temporary carveout …
Tariffs drive divergence in metals price outlook The price premium for industrial metals in the US surged in anticipation of the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were implemented this week. For example, the Midwest premium for aluminum has jumped …
What Trump put? Investors had until recently been relatively sanguine about the economic and financial market risks posed by President Donald Trump’s more extreme policy inclinations. His cabinet lacks the establishment types that served as a check on …
Bond market investors don’t seem to believe that monetary policy will be eased any further in China. Two-year yields have risen from 1.0% to 1.5% since the start of the year, putting them into line with overnight rates. They are higher now than they were …
