The dollar is ending the week broadly flat on net, continuing its stabilisation after February’s sell-off. With the latest round of central bank policy announcements in the rear-view mirror (having brought no major surprises) and the Trump administration’s next key tariff announcement on 2nd April looming ever closer, currency markets may well remain in ‘wait-and-see’ mode a little longer. While it is impossible to know exactly what the administration has in mind for its next move (never mind its next U-turn), our base case remains that tariff rates are likely to go up significantly and that this will drive a rebound in the dollar.
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