Overview – Recent rallies in metals prices, particularly in precious metals and iron ore, are likely to falter sooner rather than later. Indeed, we expect almost all metals prices to drop in the remainder of this year as global growth slows and investor …
29th July 2019
Overview – We continue to expect that sluggish growth in global oil consumption will be a factor weighing on oil prices in 2019. Nonetheless, OPEC+ output cuts and the sanctions-related drop in exports from Venezuela and Iran will put a floor under …
26th July 2019
Overview – Regardless of the Brexit outcome, we don’t expect a rebound in either house prices or transactions in 2019. Rather, there is hope of a modest improvement in housing market activity in both 2020 and 2021, assuming a no-deal Brexit is avoided in …
22nd July 2019
China Overview – China’s economy has stabilised in recent months thanks to surprisingly resilient property construction. But real estate developers will probably scale back the pace of new projects before long. And with headwinds from US tariffs and …
Overview – Subdued economic growth will weigh on the prices of most industrial and energy commodities for the remainder of 2019. What’s more, our view that there will be a further escalation in the US-China trade war could have particularly negative …
19th July 2019
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We see world GDP growth slowing further as the US succumbs to the weakness which is already evident elsewhere. The downturn in global manufacturing is spreading to the services sector and labour markets are also …
Markets Overview – We think that a combination of policy loosening by major central banks, an increase in investor risk aversion, and mounting trade tensions will lead to bond yields in Switzerland and the Nordics staying lower for longer and equities …
17th July 2019
Overview – Economic growth is likely to remain anaemic this year and to slow further in 2020 even if downside risks, such as a US auto tariff or no-deal Brexit, do not materialise. The downturn in the German manufacturing sector is spreading to other …
16th July 2019
Overview – As Brexit could dramatically alter the near-term outlook for the economy, we are continuing to publish three sets of forecasts based on different Brexit outcomes (deal, no deal and more delays). But there are three common themes to this …
Overview – The regional slowdown at the start of this year has further to run. This will continue to be led by the Gulf countries, where the drag from oil output cuts will intensify and low oil prices will prompt fresh fiscal austerity. Elsewhere, balance …
15th July 2019
Overview – After a terrible start to the year, we expect economic growth in Latin America to pick up over the next 12-18 months. However, recoveries in most cases will be weak. Indeed, our GDP forecasts for many countries, including the region’s two …
12th July 2019
Overview – Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa weakened in early 2019, but activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and into 2020 as policy across the region loosens. Even so, our forecasts are below consensus for most African economies. We …
11th July 2019
Overview – We expect economic growth across Emerging Asia to remain weak this year, with many countries set to grow at their slowest pace in a decade. China’s economy has stabilised in recent months thanks in large part to a resilient property sector. But …
Overview – The economy is set to expand by a muted 1.3% in 2019 and only 1.0% in 2020. Faced with weak external demand, further declines in residential investment and subdued consumption growth, we expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates before …
10th July 2019
Overview - Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that homebuilding will become more attractive again. …
Overview – Regional GDP growth probably hit a trough in the first half of the year, but the recovery from here on will be sluggish. Turkey is only likely to pull out of its recent recession slowly, and growth in Russia will be held back by oil output …
9th July 2019
Overview – Policy support has been stepped up in recent months and, with further easing set to follow, growth should gradually recover from the slowdown in Q1. In fact, the risk now is that policy loosening goes too far, raising the prospect of higher …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – EM GDP growth has slowed sharply and, while it should bottom out soon, growth will remain very weak. Indeed, our forecasts lie below the consensus across much of the emerging world. China – China’s economy has stabilised …
8th July 2019
Overview – Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep higher next year, keeping a lid on price …
Overview – The sharp fall in mortgage interest rates seen since the start of the year has not spurred much of a recovery in housing market activity. Home sales and housing starts have more-or-less held their ground, and house price growth has been on a …
28th June 2019
Overview – We expect GDP growth to slow sharply in the second half of this year, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp. GDP growth will slow from 2.3% this year to 1.2% in 2020, before looser financial conditions prompt a recovery …
27th June 2019
We think that world GDP growth will average around 3.0% over the next twenty years, compared to around 3.5% over the past two decades. Productivity growth is likely to rebound in advanced economies, led by the US, but this will be offset by a steady …
6th December 2018
9th September 2018
