We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.3% this year to 1.4% in 2020, before a more favourable post-election policy mix generates a rebound to 2.0% in 2021. Under those circumstances, we anticipate one final 25bp interest rate cut from the Fed in December. We expect the economy to avoid a recession, but the trade war and next year’s presidential election mean the outlook is more uncertain than usual.
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