Regional GDP growth probably hit a trough in the first half of the year, but the recovery from here on will be sluggish. Turkey is only likely to pull out of its recent recession slowly, and growth in Russia will be held back by oil output cuts. What’s more, growth in the Central European economies – which have been recent outperformers – is set to slow, particularly in 2020. Our growth forecasts for most of the region lie below the consensus. The backdrop of weak growth is likely to result in monetary loosening over the next 12-18 months in Russia, Turkey and the Czech Republic.
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