We continue to expect that sluggish growth in global oil consumption will be a factor weighing on oil prices in 2019. Nonetheless, OPEC+ output cuts and the sanctions-related drop in exports from Venezuela and Iran will put a floor under prices. The biggest upside risk to our oil price forecast is an escalation in the ongoing tensions between Iran and the West.
Meanwhile, natural gas will continue to benefit from the move towards cleaner fuels. However, the market is more than amply supplied, which will act as a lid on prices. Coal prices have already fallen sharply and we expect them to remain in the doldrums given historically low gas prices. In 2020-21, we expect oil and natural gas prices to benefit as looser US monetary conditions prompt a rise in risk appetite, and an upturn in economic activity.
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