After a strong second quarter, a sharp deceleration in export growth is set to pull GDP growth down from 1.5% this year to an even further below-potential 1.3% in 2020. We expect signs of slower growth to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates twice around the turn of this year. That monetary stimulus, combined with a modest loosening of fiscal policy, will help to push growth back up to 1.8% in 2021.
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