Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
As expected, housing starts fell back in August. But more of a worry is that building permits fell for the second consecutive month, indicating that builders have yet to respond to tight market conditions. But with homebuilder confidence at a 10-year …
20th September 2016
Somewhat surprisingly, according to Ellie Mae the average credit score for successful mortgage applications has been trending up since the beginning of the year. But a closer look shows that rise is not due to increased caution amongst banks, but rather …
15th September 2016
The number of existing homes for sale has fallen to a 15-year low, which is both constraining housing market activity and putting upward pressure on house prices. But as new households struggle to find an appropriate home to buy that should boost demand …
14th September 2016
Despite a positive economic backdrop supporting housing demand, very low levels of housing inventory are putting off potential buyers. Mortgage applications for home purchase fell for the second consecutive month in August, to their lowest level in six …
7th September 2016
A lack of inventory continues to drive developments in the housing market. The number of existing homes for sale dropped below 2 million in July, its lowest level in 15 years. Meanwhile, a surge in new home sales has pushed the months’ supply of …
6th September 2016
The large 0.9% m/m gain in house prices reported by CoreLogic in July is likely to be revised down in due course. But with inventory levels at 15-year lows, the conditions are in place for house price gains to accelerate over the next few months. … …
According to an NAHB survey, land shortages are at their most severe since records began in 1997. Low interest rates may be making landowners reluctant to sell, while labour shortages will be curbing builders’ ability to tempt landowners with higher …
31st August 2016
At the national level, house prices rose only modestly in June according to Case-Shiller. But, with market conditions tightening, we suspect gains will accelerate from here and for now see no reason to change our forecast for a 6% rise in prices this …
30th August 2016
The key driver of low levels of existing home inventory looks to be movers deciding to keep hold of their previous home rather than selling it. In turn, that behaviour has been encouraged by ultra-low interest rates. And, with rates set to remain low …
26th August 2016
A lack of inventory is constraining existing home sales, with July’s drop reversing much of the growth seen in the previous three months. Indeed, the number of existing homes for sale is now at a 15-year low. Accordingly, even with further improvements in …
Against expectations, new home sales surged in July to reach their highest level in over eight years. But that has caused market conditions to tighten even further. And, with housing starts stalling of late, rising demand will lead to house price gains, …
23rd August 2016
Housing starts managed to rise modestly for the second month in a row in July, but their overall performance remains lacklustre. But with so few existing homes for sale and the labour market creating jobs at a solid clip, the conditions are in place for …
16th August 2016
Our expectation for a 6% rise in house prices this year puts us in the top eight out of 105 forecasters. But with market conditions very tight, and only a small acceleration in monthly gains needed to meet that forecast, we are see no reason to moderate …
15th August 2016
The impact of Brexit on the housing market has been short-lived and minimal. A widening in spreads meant that mortgage rates did not fall as far as Treasury yields, which have in any case since rebounded. Moreover, what drop in mortgage rates there was …
10th August 2016
Despite some signs that the rental market is losing momentum, low rental vacancy rates and the prospect of stronger growth in average hourly earnings mean that investors in residential real estate can look forward to solid rental yields over the next few …
8th August 2016
The drop in mortgage rates triggered by Brexit gave the refinancing sector a boost in July. But applications for home purchase dropped back, as tight credit conditions and a lack of housing inventory weighed on housing demand. … Mortgage Applications …
3rd August 2016
Low levels of inventory mean that, even with housing demand rising at a subdued pace, house prices are on the up. While the 0.7% m/m gain in June reported by CoreLogic is likely to be revised down, it demonstrates that home values are making slow but …
2nd August 2016
Tentative signs of a recovery in homeownership at the end of last year proved to be afalse dawn. But with the labour market performing pretty well, housing fairly valuedand credit conditions gradually improving, the latest reading should mark the floor. … …
28th July 2016
New homes sales have performed well in recent months, and now stand at their highest level for over eight years. But with housing starts stalling, inventory levels are becoming tighter. That implies the early signs of an acceleration in house prices in …
26th July 2016
Existing home sales edged out a small gain in June, helped by a rise in first-time buyer numbers. But the months’ supply of homes for sale has fallen to its joint-lowest level for 11 years, and the recent drop in mortgage rates following the Brexit result …
21st July 2016
The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a minimal impact on the US economy, we see no reason to …
20th July 2016
Although housing starts saw a solid rise in June, the bigger picture is that there has been no sustained upward progress in homebuilding activity for over a year now. But we suspect that as credit conditions ease very gradually, builders will shift their …
19th July 2016
As we had expected, the strengthening of the dollar over the past couple of years has weighed on the number of non-resident home buyers. But we doubt the Canadian dollar or renminbi will weaken any further over the next few of years and, with buyers from …
15th July 2016
The shock decision by UK voters to leave the European Union is being felt in the mortgage market. The subsequent sharp drop in 10-year Treasury yields has helped mortgage rates down to close to record lows. But we doubt all of the fall in yields will feed …
14th July 2016
In order for housing starts to make sustained headway, building in the single-family sector needs to rise. For that to happen, builders need to shift production towards lower priced starter homes. Although homebuilder confidence is overstating the degree …
6th July 2016
The impact from Brexit is being felt in the mortgage market. Mortgage interest rates have dropped on the back of a decline in Treasury yields, which has given refinancing activity a boost. Rates are likely to edge down further in the short term, but …
CoreLogic reported a strong rise in house prices in May, in line with the recent run of solid gains. With mortgage rates now likely to stay close to record lows for longer, house prices will continue to come under upwards pressure. … CoreLogic House …
5th July 2016
A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very low mortgage rates and the gradual release of …
29th June 2016
28th June 2016
The sharp drop in Treasury yields following the decision by the UK electorate to leave the European Union is unlikely to trigger an equivalent drop in mortgage rates. At the same time, with the impact on the US economy also limited, we doubt there will be …
24th June 2016
After a 12.3% m/m jump in April, it is not surprising that new home sales fell back in May. But even after a 6.0% m/m drop sales in May were 5.6% higher than in March. That suggests that new home sales are finally making some headway. … New Home Sales …
23rd June 2016
Existing home sales rose by a marginal 1.8% m/m in May, helped by low mortgage rates. But with sales back to their long-run average and the inventory of homes for sale very low, we doubt sales will rise much further over the next couple of years. … …
22nd June 2016
Today’s data on housing starts were somewhat disappointing, showing no change in starts between April and May. But with market conditions still tight and builder confidence rising, starts should strengthen in the second half of the year. … Housing …
17th June 2016
Given low inventory levels, experience suggests that house prices should be rising at double their current rate of around 5% y/y. But with low numbers of existing homes for sale, the behaviour of builders may be having a larger influence on overall house …
16th June 2016
After seasonal adjustment, house prices dipped by a marginal 0.1% in April according to the CoreLogic index. But with supply conditions tightening further, we doubt this weak patch in house price growth will persist. … CoreLogic House Prices …
7th June 2016
After treading water since the start of 2015, new home sales finally made some headway in April with the largest month-on-month rise since 1992. While that rate of growth is unsustainable, it provides some evidence that the combination of mortgage rates …
6th June 2016
The improving economy, combined with mortgage interest rates that will stay low by past standards, should usher in a renewed period of growth in the stock of mortgage debt over the next few years. But the wave of new mortgage regulations put in place …
2nd June 2016
The slight fall in mortgage applications for home purchase in May looks in part to be down to some buyers bringing forward their applications to take advantage of mortgage interest rates that were close to record lows. But with the underlying fundamentals …
1st June 2016
At the national level, Case-Shiller reported that house prices rose by a modest 0.1% m/m in March. However, this weak patch in price pressures is unlikely to continue. Recent strong sales have led to a tightening in market conditions, which will force …
31st May 2016
Existing home sales as a share of population have been close to their long-run average since 2013. So while pent-up housing demand suggests they will rise over the next few years, the increase will be small. In contrast, new home sales are still a long …
26th May 2016
The 16.6% m/m gain in new homes sales in April was the biggest monthly rise since the start of 1992. A lack of existing homes for sale is driving the growing number of home buyers to look at the new home sector more closely. Even so, this pace of growth …
24th May 2016
Existing home sales rose by 1.7% m/m in April – a little more than we were expecting. But the overall picture from the last year has been of only limited upward movement. And while demand for homes has been rising, the shortage of inventory suggests that …
20th May 2016
Homebuilder share prices have flat lined since early 2015, which could be a sign that the recent soft patch in housing starts is set to continue. But the past relationship between the two is far from perfect, and we suspect investors are being too …
18th May 2016
April’s rise does not alter the fact that housing starts have failed to deliver any sustained growth over the past year. However, with housing demand rising gradually and builders growing more confident about the sales outlook, we doubt this weak patch …
17th May 2016
The share of US households who think that now is a good time to buy a home is close to previous highs, but the share of households who plan to buy in the near future is more subdued. The contrast between these two surveys supports the idea that there is a …
12th May 2016
Demand for homes is rising thanks to mortgage rates that are close to record lows and an improving labour market. Mortgage applications for home purchase in April were at their highest level since early 2010. But the shortage of homes for sale persists. …
11th May 2016
Applications for refinance and home purchase both increased in April, driven in part by a drop in mortgage interest rates. While an expected increase in rates will dampen refinance activity in the coming months, a strong labour market and gradual easing …
4th May 2016
The combination of a steady rise in housing demand and very low levels of housing inventory is putting upwards pressure on house prices. While the very large 1.9% m/m gain is likely to be revised down, it is clear that price growth is accelerating. … …
3rd May 2016
The annual rate of house price growth held firm in February. But with conditions in place for housing demand to increase further this year, and inventory levels set to stay low, we expect the rate of house price inflation to accelerate a little over the …
26th April 2016
New home sales fell in March – a weaker performance than we had expected. But with the economic backdrop still supporting housing demand, and inventory levels for new homes still growing, we still think new home sales will make solid gains by the end of …
25th April 2016
