Trump’s win will have two offsetting impacts on the housing market. Mortgage rates have already spiked since the election and will rise further. All else equal that will depress housing demand. Yet a fiscal stimulus also appears to be on the cards next year. That will boost GDP growth and disposable incomes, helping to counter any adverse impact of rising rates on home sales and house prices. We now expect a 5% rise in house prices in 2017, and a 2% gain in 2018.
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