Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
A steady decline in home sales last year pushed the homeownership rate to a 1½-year low in the second quarter, and we doubt it will recover over the next couple of years. A slowing economy will prevent the recent drop in mortgage rates from boosting …
26th July 2019
New home sales recover some lost ground New home sales rose by a solid 7.0% m/m in June, making up some of the ground they lost over April and May. A healthy new home inventory will continue to support sales, but the dip in mortgage applications for home …
24th July 2019
Lower interest rates fail to boost existing home sales A steady fall in mortgage interest rates has not given a boost to existing home sales, which dropped back in June and have now recorded year-on-year declines for the past 16-months. A slowing economy …
23rd July 2019
A bill which recently passed the House to cut the FHA upfront mortgage premium by 25 bps for first-time buyers who take a financial management course is too small to halt the downward trend in the FHA market share. While a weaker labour market will slow …
18th July 2019
Rise in single-family starts to continue The volatile multifamily sector was responsible for the overall decline in both housing starts and building permits in June. Single-family starts and permits both edged out a small gain and, with new home sales set …
17th July 2019
Summary: Lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring an upturn in housing activity. True, there was a strong rise in mortgage approvals last month as borrowers took advantage of falling rates. But this was mainly due to refinancing, and house purchase …
9th July 2019
Refinancing drives surge in mortgage applications Mortgage applications surged in June, as existing borrowers took advantage of declining mortgage interest rates. Meanwhile, house purchase applications also rose, but only modestly. Looking ahead, we …
3rd July 2019
Overview – The sharp fall in mortgage interest rates seen since the start of the year has not spurred much of a recovery in housing market activity. Home sales and housing starts have more-or-less held their ground, and house price growth has been on a …
28th June 2019
New home sales set to rebound over next couple of months A healthy level of inventory means the new home market is well placed to benefit from the recent rise in housing demand, and we therefore expect sales will rebound from the drop seen in May over the …
25th June 2019
Existing home sales saw a decent rise in May, but that doesn’t mean activity will now take-off even with interest rates set for further falls. Subdued home buying sentiment, a lack of inventory and gradual tightening in mortgage lending standards will …
21st June 2019
Any new housing in the San Francisco Bay area is welcome, but Google’s plan to help build 20,000 homes over the next decade will have little impact on prices. The San Francisco metro has the tightest housing market in the country, and any new homes will …
20th June 2019
The decline in housing starts in May was driven by the single-family sector, which recorded a 6.4% m/m decline. But single-family building permits rose for the first time since November last year. A lack of existing home inventory is supporting new home …
18th June 2019
Unlike house price expectations, the theoretical link between rent expectations and actual rental growth is weak. Indeed, changes in rental expectations have proven to be a poor leading indicator. Accordingly, we doubt the recent rise in expectations …
13th June 2019
Mortgage interest rates are set to fall to their lowest level since the end of 2016, but that will not trigger a surge in housing market activity. Concerns over the health of the economy means home buying sentiment is subdued, and a lack of inventory will …
10th June 2019
Despite mortgage interest rates falling to 18-month lows, mortgage applications for home purchase declined steadily over May. Concerns over the health of the economy, and a lack of inventory, is weighing on buyer sentiment. Neither of those factors will …
5th June 2019
The number of apartments completed for the rental sector has reached its highest level since records began 20-years ago. But absorption rates are low, and a slowing economy means household formation will ease. However, developers are responding to the …
3rd June 2019
The recent fall in the 10-year Treasury yield means the 30-year mortgage rate is set to drop to 1½-year lows over the next few weeks. But we doubt that will trigger another jump in mortgage applications for home purchase. Unlike earlier this year, there …
30th May 2019
March’s easing in house price growth was consistent with our expectations. Looking ahead, we expect that slowdown to continue, although with inventory levels very low and mortgage interest rates falling, we expect only a gentle slowdown in house price …
28th May 2019
The drop in new home sales in April came from an upwardly revised March figure, and sales were up 7% over the year. A healthier level of inventory is helping the new home market outperform the existing home sector, as is a gradual shift toward building …
23rd May 2019
With inventory levels close to record lows, we suspect many frustrated home movers are instead choosing to improve their current home. We therefore place more faith in the BEA estimate of home improvement spending, which in contrast to the Census Bureau …
22nd May 2019
Existing home sales dropped back for the second consecutive month in April. A lack of inventory has constrained sales even as lower mortgage interest rates have given a boost to housing demand. With that boost to demand set to fade as the economy slows, …
21st May 2019
Housing starts maintained their recent revival during April, while building permits also rose. Strong housebuilder confidence and solid underlying demand are expected to support starts over the next year or more, despite the economic slowdown. … Housing …
16th May 2019
Tax reform and lower lumber prices have led to a rise in the construction of smaller, lower-priced homes. We expect that trend will continue, helping to relieve the shortage of affordable homes on the market and supporting new home sales. However, labour …
15th May 2019
Annual house price growth in San Francisco, and some other western cities, looks set to turn negative over the next few months. But with no sign of a rise in the number of homes being put on the market, and a recovery in sales since the start of the year, …
9th May 2019
A gentle rise in mortgage interest rates led to a drop in mortgage applications for purchase over April, reversing some of the gains seen since the start of March. Subdued home buying sentiment suggests sales will struggle to gain traction this year, …
7th May 2019
The introduction of tougher lending standards for mortgages insured by the FHA will provide another headwind to housing demand this year. While the removal of similar standards in 2016 did not have a noticeable impact on the share of FHA loans approved, …
2nd May 2019
A gentle rise in mortgage interest rates over April helped cut mortgage applications for home purchase in the latter part of the month. And with home buying sentiment only receiving a modest boost from the past drop in interest rates, home purchase demand …
1st May 2019
Easing housing demand helped annual house price growth drop to a 6½-year low in February. We expect that slowdown will continue but, with inventory levels close to record lows and mortgage interest rates falling back, outright falls in prices at the …
30th April 2019
The acceleration in rental growth to 3.7% y/y in March, a 12-month high, does not reflect tighter rental markets. Instead, and in contrast to what we had expected, the rise in earnings growth to a 10-year high looks to have given landlords some latitude …
29th April 2019
The sharp fall in lumber prices over the past 10 months has failed to halt the rise in single-family homes which have been authorised, but not started. Labour shortages now appear to be the key constraint on construction, and will need to ease before …
25th April 2019
New home sales continued their strong start to the year in March, with an increase in the number of cheaper homes sold helping lift them to a 17-month high. But with the economy slowing, that rate of growth is unlikely to be maintained. Indeed, the FHFA …
23rd April 2019
After the largest month-on-month rise for over three years in February, existing home sales were always going to drop back in March. But looking through that volatility we doubt sales will see much of a rise this year. While lower interest rates have …
22nd April 2019
Even as mortgage interest rates have fallen to 15-month lows, the share of Americans saying now is a good time to buy a home has stayed close to 10-year lows. While some rise in buying sentiment over the next few months is likely, household concerns over …
16th April 2019
A drop in interest rates gave the mortgage market a shot in the arm in March, with applications for home purchase rising to close to a nine-year high. But we doubt that housing market activity is set for a sustained rise this year. A slowing economy will …
10th April 2019
According to the Homeownership and Vacancies survey, homeowners surged to a record high in 2018. If true, that would throw doubt on the widely held view that the housing market slowed last year. But given the weight of evidence pointing to a slowdown we …
8th April 2019
Mortgage interest rates have dropped sharply since the end of last year, and the 30-year fixed rate is set to fall to 4.2% by the end of 2019. But that won’t spur a significant rise in housing market activity. After all, interest rates are falling because …
4th April 2019
The drop in mortgage interest rates to a 15-month low at the end of March helped spur a strong rise in demand for both home purchase and refinance mortgages. However, as was the case in January, we suspect that jump in demand will prove short-lived. … …
3rd April 2019
Given the volatility of the data, we wouldn’t read too much into the rise in new home sales to a one-year high in February. Nevertheless, given healthy levels of inventory and evidence that builders are starting to focus on cheaper homes, the new homes …
29th March 2019
The share of mortgage applications that are approved has reached its highest since records began in 2011. With mortgage lending standards essentially unchanged, that implies borrower quality has improved. But a slowing economy will both increase lender …
28th March 2019
The sharp fall in single-family starts in February was expected given the surge recorded the previous month, and leaves starts close to where they were towards the end of 2018. But even with house price growth slowing, decent new home sales should help …
26th March 2019
The surge in existing home sales in February is likely to prove short-lived. Concerns over the health of the economy will act to offset the positive impact of lower interest rates, and coupled with tight inventory levels that suggests existing sales will …
22nd March 2019
A decline in mortgage interest rates from the start of 2012 was an important factor behind the rise in house prices in recent years. But we don’t think the upcoming drop in interest rates will have the same impact. Rates are being cut because economic …
19th March 2019
The drop in new home sales in January came from an upwardly revised December figure, so sales haven’t lost too much momentum going into 2019. Looking ahead, a slowing economy argues against a strong rise in activity. But falling interest rates, and a …
14th March 2019
If a large number of the over one million homes being kept vacant as the owner does not wish to sell were to be brought to market, house prices are likely to drop by 5% to 10%. But while slowing house price expectations may persuade some owners to sell, …
13th March 2019
A fall in existing home sales in January, to a three year low, suggests that the housing market slowdown that began in 2018 continued into 2019. Indeed, even after a decline in mortgage interest rates, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back …
12th March 2019
The good news that single-family starts saw their largest month-on-month gain for 40-years was tempered to some extent by a drop in building permits to an 18-month low, which implies that surge will prove short-lived. Nevertheless, even as the economy …
8th March 2019
The surge in home purchase demand seen in January was reversed in February, even as mortgage interest rates edged back to their lowest level in a year. That dynamic is likely to continue over the next year or so, with further falls in interest rates …
6th March 2019
New home sales increased for the second month in a row in December, to leave sales more-or-less unchanged over the year. A recovery in homebuilder confidence suggests sales have held-up since the start of 2019. Beyond that, even as a slowing economy …
5th March 2019
The homeowner vacancy rate dropped to a 25-year low at the end of last year, and we expect it will stay low even as existing home sales tread water over the next couple of years. Low interest rates will persuade more investors to keep hold of their …
1st March 2019
The recovery in homebuilder confidence, even as existing home sales have hit three-year lows, reflects the relatively bright outlook for new home sales. While overall housing demand will ease due to a slowing economy, the shortage of existing homes for …
27th February 2019
