The 30-year mortgage rate increased to an eight-week high in October, which helps explain why mortgage applications for home purchase have been trending down since mid-September. A lack of inventory, slowing economy and tightening credit conditions are also weighing on existing home sales. Indeed, at 65%, the share of households who think now is a good time to buy is consistent with flat home sales at best. But tight markets are supporting homebuilders’ confidence, and house price growth looks set to stay close to 3% y/y over the remainder of the year. Rental markets are tight, and that has helped rental growth stay close to 3.8% y/y over most of the year.
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