Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
June’s flash PMIs for the euro-zone showed a modest improvement compared to May, largely driven by a rise in the manufacturing index. Falls in the service sector index, however, suggest that occupier demand conditions in euro-zone office markets got a …
24th June 2009
We have recently nudged up our economic growth forecasts for Poland and the Czech Republic. However, our revisions still leave growth well below trend, which will do little to boost occupier demand. Thus further downward pressure on rental values can be …
18th June 2009
The rate of decline in euro-zone employment accelerated sharply in the first three months of 2009 and, although survey measures of employment intentions have picked up a little, further significant job cuts lie ahead. No euro-zone country will emerge …
16th June 2009
Developments in the commercial property market normally tend to follow developments in the real economy with a lag. But with hindsight, it seems that the devastating falls in rental values reported in Moscow between 2008Q3 and 2009Q1 were a warning of …
12th June 2009
One simple assumption that we have employed to date in our analysis of European commercial property markets is that, in any given market, the fair-value property/bond yield spread for office and retail property can be assumed to be the same. Evidence from …
11th June 2009
Since mid-2007, the yield gap for prime office property in five of the euro-zone’s larger office markets has narrowed sharply. To us, this convergence suggests that, to date, investors have not placed much emphasis on the different demand and supply …
5th June 2009
To date, capital values in Switzerland have held up better than in most other European markets. This seems consistent with the fact that Swiss property did not become significantly overvalued during the boom and that its economy has contracted less than …
2nd June 2009
The recent RICS Global Commercial Property Survey suggests that, within Europe, the Netherlands will see the sharpest falls in capital values over the next few months. With property yields already at a substantial premium to 10yr bonds, and the outlook …
28th May 2009
Recent upturns in business and consumer surveys are not yet robust enough to suggest that recovery is imminent, either in developed or emerging non-euro Europe. At best they suggest a slower rate of decline. So, despite the sharp rises in commercial …
26th May 2009
According to Agents’ reports, prime retail rental values have yet to fall in France. While this is far from unique within the euro-zone, recent consumer confidence and retail sales data show the fundamental drivers of the retail property market in France …
21st May 2009
The latest RICS snapshot of global property markets offered some tentative hope that the pace of the correction in Western Europe might soon begin to moderate as improving investor demand helps to put a ceiling on yields. The survey showed no such …
19th May 2009
There was nothing in the latest euro-zone GDP releases to change materially our commercial property forecasts. If anything, however, the figures raised most concerns about the German property market, and, in particular, the industrial sector. … Latest GDP …
15th May 2009
In the early stages of the correction, property yields in Oslo saw some of the largest rises of any European city. But the rate of increase slowed sharply in 2009Q1. However, it is too soon to interpret that as a sign that the upward shift in Norwegian …
8th May 2009
Our forecasts envisage that, in general, rental values in the euro-zone will hold up better through the recession in retail than in industrial markets. But the same will not be true in emerging Europe. There, we expect retail rental values to fall as far, …
7th May 2009
In some sectors, most notably the office market, commercial property yields stabilised in Q1, or at least rose more slowly. But we doubt the upward yield shift is over. In any event, the rental recession, which gathered pace in Q1, will ensure that …
1st May 2009
Dublin aside, prime commercial property rental values have fallen further in Barcelona and Madrid than in any other major euro-zone city. That seems consistent with the dramatic rise in Spanish unemployment, which jumped by more than 800,000 persons in Q1 …
28th April 2009
Real estate equity markets currently appear to be anticipating that commercial property capital values will fare worse in Germany and Italy this year than in France and the Netherlands. Those broad rankings are consistent with our own top-down views on …
24th April 2009
The Central Bank of Turkey’s most recent interest rate cut was the second in a row to surprise markets in its scale (75bps, to 9.75% on 16th April). However, unexpectedly sharp rate cuts do not mean that the outlook for Turkish commercial property has …
20th April 2009
To date, German property yields have proved remarkably resilient to the forces pushing property yields sharply higher in the rest of Europe. But, in our view, German property yields do not reflect the increasingly dire outlook for the economy and the …
17th April 2009
Of the four main financial hubs of Europe, we think it is Paris that will deliver the best total returns for offices. An annual average of around minus 10% over the next two years will be better than offices in Frankfurt (-14%), Zurich (-17%) and London …
15th April 2009
We have cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the increasingly gloomy outlook for noneuro- zone European economies. Capital values are likely to fall by 40% from peak to trough in most non-euro-zone markets and by more than 50% in the majority …
8th April 2009
As well as facing a deep and painful recession, occupiers in emerging Europe have been hit by falling currencies, increasing the burden of rental payments denominated in euros or dollars. While there is unlikely to be a mechanical link, these currency …
6th April 2009
We have cut our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. We now expect capital values in most markets to fall by between 30% and 40% from their peak, with the bulk of those falls being seen by the end of this year. Spain and Ireland are likely to see …
31st March 2009
The collapse of the Czech government on Tuesday night signals that the crisis in emerging Europe has entered a new phase in which political risks will come to the fore. The economic implications may not be clear for some time. But the heightened …
26th March 2009
Most non-euro European commercial property markets have already seen a sizeable upward move in yields. However, as yet, there is more limited evidence of a marked downturn in occupier markets. But, as the recession gathers pace, there can be little doubt …
3rd March 2009
The rapid deterioration in the euro-zone economic outlook over the past three or four months has left our existing rental value forecasts looking too optimistic. Indeed, taking the euro-zone as a whole, peak-to-trough falls in real rental values could …
26th February 2009
In our analysis of euro-zone commercial property markets, we base our analysis of valuations on a comparison between property yields and the yield on a 10-year German bund, regardless of whether that property is in Munich, Milan or Madrid. While that is …
19th February 2009
The collapse in industrial production that has been seen across Europe suggests that the economic downturn is rapidly gathering speed. This is bad news for property investors. In our view, investors in Emerging Europe will be even harder hit by these …
16th January 2009
Over the next two years, we expect the best performing euro-zone commercial property markets to be Greece, Finland and Portugal. All are forecast to deliver better total returns than core markets such as Germany and France. But have we under-estimated the …
19th December 2008
With very few exceptions, total returns in noneuro European commercial property markets are, on average, forecast to be negative in 2009 and 2010, before recovering in 2011 and beyond. (See Charts 1 to 8 on page 3). Although Ireland and Spain will buck …
10th December 2008
Over the next two years, falling capital values, generated by rising yields mean that total returns are likely to be low or even negative in many Euro-zone property markets with the smaller markets the most likely to buck that trend. On average, in 2009 …
For clients of our new European Commercial Property service, this note provides a guide to our philosophy and forecast methodology. In short, our approach to analysing and forecasting commercial property is top-down. It is an approach that has served us …
26th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Coming Soon …
29th August 2008
The latest data suggest that the required adjustment in commercial property yields in the euro-zone continued in 2008Q4. But the outlook for occupier markets deteriorated, reinforcing our belief that the commercial property correction in all euro-zone …
5th February 2008
