Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Evidence that the first quarter’s generally encouraging economic news is providing a boost for non-euro-zone European property markets is patchy and unconvincing. Excluding the UK, only Istanbul offices and Prague logistics saw yields drop by more than …
8th May 2014
Absent another shock, over the next few quarters, further falls in the peripheral property yields are likely. However, with deflation lurking in the background and yields already low, core yields are unlikely to follow, implying that, at the euro-zone …
7th May 2014
The balance of evidence suggests that conditions in the euro-zone economy improved a little further in Q1. However, convincing evidence that this is now feeding into a clear improvement in occupier market conditions is hard to come by. Nevertheless, the …
2nd May 2014
Czech consumer confidence hit a six-year high in April. Yet the labour market is still weak and the recent strong pace of growth in retail sales may overstate the underlying health of consumer demand. Thus the outlook for rental growth in the Prague …
1st May 2014
The recent slump in Dutch industrial production masks a better trend in manufacturing growth. Yet given the sustained nature of the economic downturn, the outlook for industrial occupier demand and rental growth remains weak. Nevertheless, we do expect …
25th April 2014
All sectors of the Dublin property market received a boost from tightening yields during the first quarter. However, while there seems scope for further yield compression in the retail and industrial sectors, this looks increasingly less true for offices. …
23rd April 2014
The low level of confidence in the Italian service sector throughout 2013 is consistent with the underperformance of office capital values versus retail. But while services confidence has since risen, we don’t believe an abrupt turnaround in the office …
16th April 2014
Denmark’s lack of external competitiveness and production lost through outsourcing help explain why industrial property yields in Copenhagen remain at a post-crisis high. Yet the outlook for rents now seems positive, which should attract investors’ …
15th April 2014
Falls in office rental values in Zurich and Geneva seem at odds with the growing Swiss economy. But for Zurich at least, weakness in the financial services sector seems to explain why office take-up has been so poor. In Geneva, meanwhile, space …
10th April 2014
An increased preference amongst occupiers for shopping centre space and a run-down of leasing incentives probably help to explain why headline shop rents in Brussels have now been flat for three years in a row. A meaningful upturn isn’t imminent, but a …
9th April 2014
Since the crisis, employment in the periphery has underperformed the euro-zone average. But recent data does at least show some positives for Portugal. And while sustained employment growth in Spain has yet to emerge, the retail and logistics sector seems …
4th April 2014
The fact that office yields in Stockholm have fallen below retail yields looks like a mispricing that will be reversed in due course. The good news, however, is that the Swedish economy and occupier markets appear to be recovering. Thus, in the absence of …
2nd April 2014
A broad-based economic recovery combined with a modest development pipeline points to rents in the major German office markets making steady gains over the next few years. Yet the recent pick-up in financial services activity, combined with some potential …
28th March 2014
We believe that the outlook for occupier demand and rental values in Poland is among the best in Europe. But much of that good news already seems to be reflected in Polish yields which are low. Thus the outlook for capital values and total returns, while …
26th March 2014
Buoyant economic sentiment in Hungary may overstate the underlying health of the domestic economy. We would not be surprised if sentiment and GDP growth cooled later this year. Nevertheless, strengthening external demand should offer some support for …
20th March 2014
The Norwegian krone is not a key driver of industrial rental values in Oslo. That said, at the margin, the currency’s fall is another reason to expect the recovery in industrial rental values over the past year to be extended. … What effect will the …
19th March 2014
The 80% rise in Czech investment volumes in 2013 was more than double the average recorded across the CEE region as a whole. But the underlying trend is far weaker than the headline numbers suggest. However, Czech property does not look overvalued and the …
13th March 2014
The economic recovery, combined with improving business confidence, should help to boost occupier demand in Brussels this year. But with leasing incentives still generous and the economic recovery likely to be slow, a rapid recovery in office rental …
10th March 2014
We have not made material changes to the majority of our economic forecasts since our previous Analyst. Nevertheless, we have edged up our forecasts for capital value growth in a number of non-euro-zone property markets. On the whole, the key driver of …
5th March 2014
Euro-zone property markets ended the year on strong note, with many seeing a material rise in investment market activity. Small falls in yields were also more common than not. Our economic forecasts are little changed from our previous Analyst. As such, …
Reflecting the recent hike in official interest rates, credit growth and consumer spending in Turkey are vulnerable to a slowdown. In turn, and given that rents are high while yields are low, there is an increased risk that our central forecast for …
27th February 2014
Retail rental values in Stockholm ended 2013 strongly, rising by 2%q/q in Q4. This pushed the annual rate of rental growth above 2% for the first time since mid-2012. We expect rental growth to accelerate even further from here, as the consumer sector …
26th February 2014
Some of the conditions that preceded Ireland’s strong investment market recovery a couple of years ago are now evident in Portugal. GDP is expanding at a decent rate, while the deficit reduction programme appears to be on track. However, property …
18th February 2014
Broad-based economic growth across the euro-zone in Q4 last year clearly helps to explain the recent widespread falls in property yields. We doubt that GDP growth across the region will suddenly surge ahead, but the risks to property yields this year may …
17th February 2014
Investment demand for commercial property in 2013 as a whole was relatively strong in the UK and Emerging Europe. But it weakened in Scandinavia, despite signs of improving economic fundamentals and an easing of commercial property credit conditions. …
13th February 2014
Further rises in euro-zone economic activity and sentiment over the past few months have helped to maintain a robust level of investment demand for commercial property in the region. And in contrast to recent trends, occupier market activity finally …
7th February 2014
The recent surge in industrial confidence in Hungary increases the upside risks around our forecasts for industrial rental value growth. But after taking account of existing spare capacity, the current level of rents, as well as our macro forecasts, we …
5th February 2014
Evidence of a budding economic recovery and a comparatively high level of property yields have boosted investor interest in Copenhagen. There are reasons not to get carried away. But the upside risks to our 2014-18 forecasts for property seem to be …
30th January 2014
Strong investment market activity in the fourth quarter, particularly in Spain and other peripheral markets, suggests that our 2014 forecast for unchanged yields in most euro-zone property markets may be too cautious. Yet while the weight of money may …
28th January 2014
The strength of the Russian investment market may suggest that our forecast for unchanged office and retail yields this year and next is too cautious. But the subdued economic outlook, the falls in yields already seen, as well as renewed interest in some …
22nd January 2014
The recent weakness in euro-zone real estate equity prices suggests that capital value growth in the physical property market will slow to zero over the coming quarters. Improved confidence within the industry may help to eke out a recovery in investment …
20th January 2014
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the weak state of the French economy, the Ile-de-France office occupier downturn stepped up a notch in 2013. More notable, though, was the fall in the investment volume, which suggests that some investors may now be less …
15th January 2014
It now looks likely that Warsaw office rents fell by between 3% and 5% last year, in line with our forecasts. We think that office rents should now stabilise, as occupier demand turns increasingly expansionary. But the still-large and mostly speculative …
14th January 2014
The surge in UK economic sentiment appears to be breathing new life into occupier markets outside London and is a key reason why we expect commercial property values in the UK as a whole to do well in 2014. In Europe, however, economic sentiment is far …
9th January 2014
Signs that Spain's labour market has now turned a corner, both nationally and in its two largest cities, are clearly good news for office occupier markets. Falls in unemployment over the past year suggest that vacancy rates in Barcelona and, more notably, …
7th January 2014
Together with the fact that European logistics property yields look high in relation to the other main commercial property sectors, we think that the message from Eurostat's 2013 household ICT usage survey - that European consumers are increasingly using …
2nd January 2014
As 2013 draws to a close, in this Focus we take the opportunity to outline a selection of our key calls for European commercial property markets in 2014, and the thinking that underpins them. … Half a dozen key calls for European commercial property …
18th December 2013
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for the Hungarian commercial property investment market. This afternoon’s further cut in interest rates, to a fresh record low of 3%, only serves to make property valuations look more …
17th December 2013
The latest economic data from Denmark suggest that industrial occupier conditions in Copenhagen are on the mend. And with rental values more than 10% below a linear trend, and yields more than 10% above a long-run average, there is plenty of scope over …
10th December 2013
Commercial property in the euro-zone's two largest economies may appear expensive. But given the market's size, liquidity and perceived safe-haven status, as well as our view that capital values will be preserved over the next five years, we think that …
9th December 2013
Amsterdam’s “Action Programme to Tackle Vacant Offices” appears to be bearing fruit. The total office stock has shrunk over the past year and, despite weak occupier demand, the vacancy rate has fallen. We think this trend will continue for at least the …
4th December 2013
The economic problems facing Italy mean that, in our view, it is too soon to call the floor for capital values in office and industrial markets. By contrast, we do expect the next big move in Spanish property values to be up. However, if we are right that …
2nd December 2013
For European commercial property markets outside of the currency union, occupier conditions appear to be strengthening gradually, while investment markets have cooled. We expect these trends to continue. Broadly speaking, we think that steady but …
28th November 2013
The latest economic and property market data from the single currency region sit comfortably with our forecasts that commercial property in the euro-zone faces a further year of stability in rental values and initial yields. Our view is that euro-zone GDP …
Norwegian commercial property outperformed over 2009-12 and has recently accelerated again. Yet with rents now back at or above past peaks and yields at historically low levels, the headroom for “catch-up” capital value growth that was present in early …
21st November 2013
All-property capital values in Ireland are 20% higher than a year ago and there is scope for further strong, yield-driven gains over the next quarter or two. To us, it seems inevitable that the pace of the upturn will slow thereafter, but rental gains …
19th November 2013
The latest economic activity data point to strengthening conditions in parts of Europe outside of the single currency region. Hence, commercial property occupier demand seems to be holding up fairly well, particularly in Emerging Europe. And this is …
14th November 2013
The message from the latest RICS survey was that property prospects in most parts of Emerging Europe are subdued, a view we broadly share. The exceptions are the Czech Republic, where we think capital value expectations have become too optimistic, and …
12th November 2013
Increased optimism in the euro-zone’s economic outlook may have prompted some investors to look through what they perceive to be the final stages of the occupier market downturn. But October’s fall in the euro-zone PMI, together with today’s ECB decision …
7th November 2013
The improvement in the euro-zone economy has supported a relatively active quarter for commercial property investment in Q3. Moreover, some types of investors have become increasingly willing to look beyond France and Germany, to Spain and Italy. For now, …
6th November 2013
