Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) …
16th May 2024
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
Forecasts for prime office rental growth have generally proven too pessimistic over the past couple of years, but there is again broad agreement that a slowdown is on the way this year. However, we think the risks are still to the downside and that the …
The Italian industrial market made a strong start to 2024, with prime rent growth outpacing the rest of the euro-zone and beating our own forecasts. Rental gains are still expected to slow going forward, but with economic activity in Italy also holding up …
9th May 2024
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for European commercial property. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right …
The rebound in prime retail rents is set to wane this year. But we think prime rents on luxury high streets will continue to outperform those of mass markets in the coming years. The return to rental growth on high streets in 2023 after three years of …
7th May 2024
The weakness in euro-zone investment in Q1 highlights that the pricing correction to date has not been enough to entice investors back to the sector. Lower market interest rates will support the recovery in H2, but we expect further rises in property …
2nd May 2024
The wide divergence in global office market performance to-date has been driven by significant differences in the return to office and the impact that has had on occupiers’ leasing decisions. US markets have been the major losers, while those in …
29th April 2024
The latest RICS survey suggested that there was a further improvement in occupier and investment demand at the beginning of 2024. However, the big picture was one of a very weak market, reaffirming our view that rent growth will slow further and the …
25th April 2024
Prime office rent growth in Scandinavia is expected to moderate in the coming years as soft demand and rising supply push up vacancy. But having trailed the other Scandinavian cities in 2023, we think that tighter supply could help rent growth in Oslo …
23rd April 2024
While rental performance in German commercial property markets has been relatively solid given the country’s poor economic performance over the past five or so years, we think this is set to end. In a recent Focus we highlighted how, after a very subdued …
16th April 2024
This week we held a Drop-In on the outlook for euro-zone commercial property. Clients can access a recording here . This Update provides answers to the most interesting questions that emerged from the discussion. Has inflation indexation helped boost …
11th April 2024
The CEE industrial market cooled in 2023 as economic activity stagnated. This year will herald an economic recovery but we don’t think it will be stop the rent growth slowdown. Demand is anticipated to rebound only tentatively and supply is still strong, …
4th April 2024
Note: We will be discussing the outlook for European commercial real estate markets in a 20-minute online briefing at 10am BST on Wednesday 10th of April. (Register here .) After a solid 2023, we expect Paris prime office rental growth to slow markedly …
27th March 2024
Note: We will be discussing the outlook for European commercial real estate markets in a 20-minute online briefing at 10am BST on Wednesday 10th of April. (Register here .) Overview – Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the …
21st March 2024
The revival of prime retail rental growth in 2023 ended a three-year rental decline for the sector. This likely marks the end of retail’s rental woes and we have nudged up our prime rent forecast for this year, but we doubt there will be a return to the …
14th March 2024
Improved valuations suggest that the price correction in prime property is almost done. However, with little scope for bond yields in continental Europe to fall from here and property-to-bond yield spreads still narrow compared to the recent past, we …
13th March 2024
Note: Andrew Burrell will be answering questions and highlighting key issues around the size and scale of the recovery in commercial property in a Drop-In on Tuesday, 12th March . Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. Completions in Europe …
5th March 2024
Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in any previous cycle across global markets. And with …
4th March 2024
Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s largest market is justified, other major euro-zone markets …
1st March 2024
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024) …
23rd February 2024
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024) …
21st February 2024
This week we held a Drop-In on commercial property distress across the US, UK and Europe. Clients can access a recording here and find related analysis on our dedicated landing page . This Update provides answers to several questions on the UK and …
16th February 2024
A robust labour market will support Spanish office occupier demand to a greater extent than elsewhere in the euro-zone in the next few years. As a result, we think prime office rent growth will outperform the rest of the region. However, upgrades to the …
12th February 2024
Are European and UK commercial real estate markets facing the same level of distress as the US? We held a Property Drop-In on Wednesday, 14th February , A recording of the session can be viewed here . Falling interest rates will not prevent a rise in …
7th February 2024
Euro-zone investment improved a little in Q4, but that did not prevent it experiencing its worst year in a decade. While we have raised our forecast for through-year growth, we still expect a weak start to 2024 and think that by historic standards it will …
5th February 2024
At face value, the rebound in European equity REIT prices over recent months suggests that capital values could be nearing their trough. But the past relationship is weak and REITs have benefited from the stock market rally. We therefore don’t see the …
2nd February 2024
The latest RICS survey offered tentative signs that we could be past the worst of the property downturn in Europe, as both occupier and investment demand balances picked up slightly. However, the big picture remained one of a very weak market. Investor …
25th January 2024
The long boom in residential investment has been severely dented by soaring interest rates. Solid fundamentals mean investor interest will remain strong, but it is unlikely residential yields have peaked, or that relative performance will be as stellar as …
24th January 2024
Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment. This suggests that property pricing still has further to …
17th January 2024
The resilience of euro-zone rental growth last year surprised us. But our analysis indicates that better-than-expected economic activity explained much of that strength and as recession looms in 2024, all-property rents are likely to slow more decisively. …
16th January 2024
Much has been talked about a ‘flight to quality’ in the office sector given the structural shift to hybrid working. However, while there is evidence of this in relative rental performance, a look at the yield data suggests that the opposite has been true …
11th January 2024
The surge in Italian prime retail rents over the past year is likely to give way in 2024, as inflation falls back and consumer spending stagnates. But the strong fundamentals that have supported this outperformance are still in place and will help rent …
10th January 2024
Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for marginally positive euro-zone returns – while a considerable …
5th January 2024
In another year of upheaval for commercial property in Europe, our forecasts were broadly correct in terms of direction, but underestimated the severity of the downturn. Some, though not all, of this was the result of unexpected macroeconomic factors, …
4th January 2024
A relatively resilient economy and tight supply will support French industrial rent growth in the next two years. However, regional markets stand to benefit most. Availability is greater, and rising, in Paris and poor rental affordability will continue to …
21st December 2023
In Warsaw, more favourable economic conditions will support retail spending and prime rents in the short term. But from 2025, faster rises in online shopping than elsewhere in Europe will cause the city’s retail rents to lag the rest of the region. Warsaw …
20th December 2023
This week, we held a series of property roundtable discussions with clients in our London office as part of our World in 2024 series. In this Update, we outline our thoughts on the most interesting questions raised, covering electoral uncertainty and …
14th December 2023
Overview – A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests it is too early to call the bottom in prices. …
8th December 2023
Our AI work has identified data centres as a clear winner from these innovations. That the sector is already in rude health is borne out by the latest real estate data. But it remains to be seen if it can ever reach the scale to displace more traditional …
30th November 2023
In this Global Economics Update , we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary policy mean that the biggest risks relate to central …
Our recent r* work reinforces the view that property yields will stay relatively high longer term. That implies global returns in low single digits over the next decade or so, well below pre-pandemic averages. Our recent Global Economics Focus summarises …
27th November 2023
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2023) …
23rd November 2023
Milan prime office yields appear very low both compared to other alternative assets and other euro-zone countries. By any standards, office property there looks highly overvalued. But looking ahead, as rent growth trails elsewhere in the region, we expect …
20th November 2023
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2023) …
16th November 2023
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
November’s IPF Consensus Survey showed that, although euro-zone office rental growth is expected to slow next year, forecasts remained unchanged on average from the May survey. In contrast, given the ongoing deterioration in office leasing and the weak …
15th November 2023
The bankruptcy of WeWork in the US was a predictable end to a long-running saga. Its effects on office markets will not be systemic, but they will reinforce existing weaknesses and pile more bad news on the sector just at the wrong time. The announcement …
9th November 2023
Despite the steepest crash in commercial property values on record, the credit risk and asset quality of European banks’ commercial real estate (CRE) lending is holding up well. Further declines in values mean there could be a further deterioration, but …
8th November 2023
This week we held a drop-in on the prospects for commercial property investment in the UK and Europe, which can be found here . This Update provides answers to the most interesting questions that emerged from the discussion. Will prime offices outperform? …
3rd November 2023
