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The US Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise interest rates in September has seen the dollar weaken recently. As a result, the strengthening of a number of currencies against the greenback, including the Brazilian real and the Canadian dollar, has …
22nd October 2015
US crude oil stocks jumped sharply again last week, despite an uptick in refinery runs. However, stocks of gasoline fell as demand for products increased. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
21st October 2015
The latest data on China’s metals imports suggest that recent fiscal and monetary stimulus, particularly infrastructure spending, are starting to feed through to stronger commodity demand. … Across-the-board strength in China’s metals …
The detailed Chinese import data, released earlier today, show that in y/y terms, demand remains strong. But given the surge in imports of a number of commodities recently, rapid growth may not be sustained. … China’s agricultural import growth may be …
The latest data on China’s imports of platinum group metals (PGMs) are consistent with early signs of stronger vehicle production. However, platinum jewellery demand appears to have moderated. … China’s PGMs import data show some areas of …
World Steel Association (WSA) data for September show a 3.7% y/y fall in global steel output, with declines in most major producing regions. This is a larger fall than last month, but the market remains oversupplied, putting downward pressure on prices. … …
20th October 2015
The most likely outcome from tomorrow’s meeting of OPEC plus some selected guests is pledges to share more information between OPEC and other oil producers. Venezuela’s and others’ calls for a cut in output will almost certainly continue to fall on deaf …
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output grew by almost 10% y/y in September. Excluding China, output rose by a modest 3% y/y. … Global Aluminium Production …
We expect three factors to combine to rescue the prices of key industrial commodities in the coming months. First, the responses of producers to the previous slump in prices will start to constrain supply. The pace at which this will happen will vary – …
19th October 2015
Commodity prices have given back some of the previous week’s gains, due in part to some mixed signals from the US and Chinese economies. Nonetheless, the overall tone remains positive, helped by expectations that global central banks will err on the side …
16th October 2015
The price of cocoa has remained high due to supply concerns. However, with demand likely to continue to be weak, we think that the price will fall over the remainder of the year. … Price of cocoa to grind …
Negative gold premiums, the difference between local prices and international benchmarks, in India have prompted fears of a slowdown in consumption from one of the largest market players. While a weak monsoon and fewer festive days have certainly weighed …
US oil stocks rose sharply last week as refinery runs fell and imports climbed. Meanwhile, oil production slipped back and demand for oil products rebounded. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
15th October 2015
Commodity prices have rebounded since the middle of September as fears about the Chinese economy have diminished. Many industrial commodities were also supported by talk of supply cuts, while precious metals prices were buoyed by the Fed’s decision to …
A combination of weak Chinese demand, destocking in North America and poor economic conditions in Brazil and the CIS is weighing on steel demand this year. At the same time, global output has been resilient and Chinese exports have soared. However, …
14th October 2015
We remain positive on the outlook for US natural gas prices over the next few years, despite the current weakness, as the cleaner fuel should continue to take market share from coal. … Long-term outlook for US natural gas prices still …
The prices of precious metals (PMs) have rallied since mid-September, as sentiment towards commodities in general improved. While the Fed’s dovishness has been the biggest catalyst for changes in gold and silver prices recently, the Volkswagen (VW) …
13th October 2015
For the most part, LME metal stocks have fallen since the start of September, in some cases to multi-year lows. However, concerns about demand continue to weigh on prices. We expect the low level of inventories to be a key factor bolstering prices as …
While the headlines have focused on the weak value data, the pick-up in China’s industrial import volumes suggests that ongoing fiscal stimulus, notably infrastructure spending, and earlier price falls are boosting commodity demand. We expect import …
OPEC’s oil production rebounded a little last month, but slower growth in non-OPEC supplies and strong growth in demand should still help prices to rise over the next few years. … OPEC’s oil output rises, but supply elsewhere set to …
12th October 2015
While the Fed has been the biggest driver of gold prices recently, labour tensions in South Africa could provide a further boost. We believe that the gold market is already quite tight after prolonged low prices have started to negatively impact …
Although the USDA has revised down its forecasts for this year’s US corn, wheat and soybean harvests, we think ample global supplies will push prices down over the remainder of the year. … Rising Brazilian soybean production to push prices …
The rebound in oil prices can largely be explained by an improvement in sentiment toward demand and mounting evidence of cuts in non-OPEC supply. Admittedly, the escalation of Russia’s military involvement in Syria has provided a new dimension to …
September data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil stocks rose to the highest monthly level on record. … Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data …
We think that the market is still underestimating the weakness in China’s demand for coal and expect prices to continue to fall over the next few years as this becomes more apparent. … Digging deeper into China’s coal …
We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. Indeed, market sentiment may now be bottoming out, supported by …
9th October 2015
We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. We are therefore happy to reiterate our (generally …
Cuts to production forecasts and other supply concerns have resulted in a sharp rise in the prices of a number of agricultural commodities since the beginning of September. In tandem, futures curves have also generally moved higher. … Investors start …
Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, showed that sugarcane harvesting in Brazil’s main South-Central region was back on track in the second half of September after being severely disrupted by rain earlier in the month. …
8th October 2015
Planned and unplanned cuts to copper supply now make it increasingly likely that the market will be in deficit next year (and possibly this year), even with very subdued demand projections. This outlook is not being reflected in prevailing copper prices. …
South Africa PGM production and sales continued to fall in August as low prices are threatening miners’ profitability. We expect production growth to continue to slow over the remainder of the year, keeping prices well supported. … South Africa’s Mine …
The price of gold has rallied, helped by the Fed’s reluctance to raise US interest rates, but still looks likely to end the year some way below January’s peak of around $1,300 per ounce. However, gold should benefit further from a recovery in other …
Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline rose again last week, helped by a fall in refinery utilisation and a small rebound in US oil production. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
7th October 2015
TPP is the largest trade deal to be negotiated for more than 20 years. But given the relatively small share of world imports of key agricultural commodities by the 12 signatories and many existing bilateral trade deals, we think the boost to trade in the …
September was a relatively quiet month, at least for oil prices, as calm returned to Chinese equities. What’s more, oil has actually started to recover in early October as China fears subside further and the focus shifts to the supply cuts in response to …
Tin prices have risen recently, defying the generally negative sentiment towards metals. As we move into 2016, we expect stronger growth in demand to lead to further price gains. … Can tin prices continue to …
Global central banks continued to add gold to their reserves in August, with China and Russia once again particularly active. We expect further official purchases to be one of several factors supporting the price of gold in the next few years. … World …
The US dollar price of sugar has recently surged as a result of a hike in fuel prices in Brazil. But with the price of sugar already much higher in terms of Brazilian real, and the possibility of additional Indian exports soon, we think the upside for the …
6th October 2015
Concerns about the scale of the slowdown in China continued to weigh on metals prices in September. The decision by the US Fed to delay the first interest rate rise only provided temporary relief. As a result, the S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell by …
5th October 2015
US imports and exports of silver bullion and doré picked up in July, as government mints across the world struggled to keep up with unexpectedly strong demand for silver coins. In contrast, trade of semi-manufactured silver slumped, suggesting weak …
Lower investment in oil exploration and production will lead to a sharp drop in growth in non-OPEC output over the next few years, especially from unconventional sources such as deep water and tar sands. This should help to rebalance the market and lift …
The performance of the major precious metals continued to diverge in September, with the palladium price buoyed by the Volkswagen scandal, while the other precious metals edged lower (before gold jumped in the wake of the weak US labour data, today.) …
2nd October 2015
The main event of the past week was the disappointing US jobs report for September, which clearly did little to improve investor confidence in the global economy. Yes, it will probably delay the first interest rate hike from the Fed until early next year. …
China appears to hold a larger than average share of its fx reserves in US dollars, UK pounds and Australian dollars at the expense of euros and the Japanese yen. This is the conclusion we have tentatively reached on the basis of the latest currency …
The move away from commodity-intensive investment-led growth in China towards a more consumer-driven economy is often cited as sounding the death knell for commodities demand. However, we would argue that the picture is much more nuanced and that demand …
Commodity prices fell again in September on concerns about a hard landing in China despite many leading indicators of the Chinese economy, including credit growth and fiscal spending, suggesting that a pick-up in activity is on its way. We continue to …
1st October 2015
The latest US grain stocks estimates continue to signal that grain and oilseed supplies are plentiful. With weak currencies boosting the competitiveness of key exporters, we think dollar prices are likely to fall further over the remainder of the year. … …
Crude oil and gasoline stocks both jumped last week, driven by lower refinery runs, higher imports and a dip in demand for oil products. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
30th September 2015
We would not be surprised if the well-publicised problems at Glencore actually mark a trough for the prices of many industrial commodities. This (perhaps rather counter-intuitive) conclusion is based on three key points. … Glencore’s woes may have …
The price of soybeans has fallen by around 15% in US dollar terms so far this year. However, the bigger picture is that the price has been in a downward trend since peaking close to 1,750 US cents per bushel in September 2012. In this Agricultural …
