Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The Bank of England’s November Inflation Report suggested that the door is still open for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to follow the US Fed in extending its programme of asset purchases. … Bank of England Inflation Report …
10th November 2010
The sluggish trend in consumer confidence points to renewed weakness in consumer spending growth ahead. And sentiment yet might deteriorate further. … Fragile consumer sentiment points to spending …
9th November 2010
The UK industrial recovery, while still fairly healthy, seems to have lost a bit of pace. And the continued dismal net trade performance continues to cast a cloud over the outlook for the sector. … UK Industrial Production & Trade …
The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision not to follow the US Federal Reserve in embarking on a new bout of quantitative easing (QE) last week was justified by the recent news on the UK economy. But the game of “follow the Fed” should not be interrupted …
8th November 2010
The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance the global economy. In particular, the US will find it …
5th November 2010
October’s UK producer prices figures won’t do a great deal to ease near-term inflation concerns. But neither should they worry the MPC too much. … Producer Prices …
The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) not to follow the Fed in implementing more quantitative easing (QE) today no doubt reflected the stronger tone of the economic data over the past few weeks. But with the fiscal squeeze looming, limited …
4th November 2010
October’s rise in the Halifax house price index was widely expected, given the size of the previous month’s drop. Moreover, although far stronger than consensus estimates for a 0.6% rise, the underlying trend still points to accelerating house price …
October’s CIPS/Markit Report on Services continued the recent run of slightly better news on the strength of economic activity. But the recovery still appears to have slowed in the past couple of months and we continue to have significant doubts about the …
3rd November 2010
The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in Q3 suggested that the recovery is still progressing nicely. However, the fiscal squeeze is yet to hit – and last month’s Spending Review confirmed that overall government spending is still set to fall by about 3.5% in …
2nd November 2010
We continue to think that the biggest fiscal squeeze in decades will bring the consumer recovery to a sharp halt. … Consumer spending heading for a double dip (Q4 …
1st November 2010
October’s UK CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial recovery has some momentum left. But there are still good reasons to think that the recovery will lose further pace in the months ahead. … CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing …
Last week’s news that GDP is estimated to have risen by 0.8% q/q in Q3 suggested that the recovery is ticking along quite nicely. But we would not go as far as some have done in concluding that the strong rise in GDP is evidence that the Government’s …
Broad money growth still looks very weak, with the pick-up seen earlier this year now looking like a statistical quirk. This supports the view of some MPC members, including Mervyn King, that a persistent inflation problem looks unlikely. … Monetary …
29th October 2010
October’s CBI distributive trades survey suggested that retail spending is still picking up at a rapid rate, but evidence from other sources – including the official sales data – indicate that activity is much more subdued. … CBI Distributive Trades …
28th October 2010
The multitude of comments by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members over the past month have suggested that most are still very open to the idea of re-starting quantitative easing (QE). While the unexpectedly strong expansion of the economy in Q3 has …
The Nationwide house price index fell for the third time in four months in October. As such, the data suggest that the key question facing the market is no longer “Will house prices fall?” but rather ”How far will prices fall?” … Nationwide House Prices …
The strong revival in construction output has been a key factor behind the recent strength of GDP growth. But we doubt that the sector will continue to support the recovery from here. … Construction recovery built on fragile …
27th October 2010
The unexpectedly strong growth in the UK economy in Q3 is a welcome surprise and will probably delay a further bout of quantitative easing. But we still expect growth to slow sharply next year as the fiscal squeeze kicks in. … Preliminary GDP …
26th October 2010
Last week’s long awaited Spending Review appeared to include a moderate watering down of the planned cuts in public expenditure over the next four years. Nonetheless, an extremely onerous fiscal squeeze is still on its way. … Spending Review has not …
25th October 2010
The consumer recovery does not seem to be based on particularly strong foundations. With real incomes falling – and likely to fall further as the fiscal squeeze hits – households are having to save a smaller proportion of their income in order to keep …
21st October 2010
September’s retail sales figures provided further evidence to suggest that consumers have begun to rein in their expenditure even before the fiscal squeeze has begun. … UK Retail Sales …
In spelling out the detail of the planned cuts in public spending, today’s Spending Review underlined the challenge the Government faces to sort out the public finances. We continue to believe that the cuts, coupled with the coming tax hikes, will be a …
20th October 2010
The minutes to October’s MPC meeting provided further evidence to suggest that the Committee is moving closer to recommencing quantitative easing, while September’s public finance figures cast further doubt on the ability of the Government to meet the …
This week’s long-awaited Spending Review will do little to alter the macro-economic landscape. We already know the overall spending plans for the next five years and, while some changes to the totals are possible, they are likely to be minor. … Spending …
18th October 2010
The sheer size of the Government’s planned reductions in public spending and the likely weakness of the economy cast major doubts on whether the cuts can actually be achieved in full. But big cuts are certainly coming and they are going to hurt. … Can the …
14th October 2010
The labour market recovery appears to be faltering, even before the public sector job cuts really begin. We stand by our long-held view that unemployment will eventually rise all the way to 3 million, possibly by 2012. … UK Labour Data …
13th October 2010
One explanation for the relatively small drop in employment during this recession is the muted pickup in company insolvencies. But a number of factors could prompt insolvencies to rise further, meaning that some of the fall in employment associated with …
12th October 2010
UK consumer price inflation remains stubbornly high. But that is unlikely to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee from providing the economy with further policy support should activity continue to disappoint. … UK Consumer Prices …
Companies may weather the coming fiscal storm rather better than households and the public sector. But they certainly won’t survive entirely unscathed. … How will companies weather the fiscal storm? (Q4 …
11th October 2010
Given the speed with which the economic upturn has been losing momentum, last week’s data came as a big relief. But although the wider economy has, for now at least, edged away from a double-dip, GDP growth still appears to have slowed to pretty …
September’s UK producer prices figures suggest that pipeline cost pressures in the industrial sector are still quite strong. But we do not expect that to prevent overall consumer price inflation from falling back over the next year or two. … Producer …
8th October 2010
7th October 2010
August’s UK industrial production figures confirmed that, for now at least, the manufacturing sector continues to defy the gathering gloom over the broader economic outlook. But industry’s resilience may not last much longer. … Industrial Production …
The hefty drop in the Halifax measure of house prices adds weight to the view that house price weakness is far from over. To our minds, weak housing market activity indicators mean that further falls in house prices are likely. … Halifax House Prices …
September’s CIPS/Markit Report on Services should, for now at least, ease fears about the risk of a double-dip in the economy. But double-dip or no double-dip, the recovery appears to have a lost a significant amount of momentum. … UK CIPS/Markit Report …
5th October 2010
He may have put it a little bluntly, but our sympathies are with Charlie Bean with respect to the comments he made about savers in an interview with Channel Four last week. Encouraging people to save less, and to spend more, is what the MPC has been doing …
4th October 2010
September’s UK CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing provided further evidence that the recovery in both the industrial sector and the wider recovery is fading fast. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing …
1st October 2010
The recovery is still losing momentum, with the CIPS/Markit surveys indicating that growth may grind to a complete halt by the end of the year. (See Chart.) Admittedly, the economy now seems slightly better balanced than it looked before, with investment …
30th September 2010
The Bank of England’s latest survey suggested that while credit conditions are continuing to thaw, the process remains very gradual. We do not expect lending growth to pick up pace any time soon. … Credit Conditions Survey …
Signs that the economic recovery is fading have prompted the Monetary Policy Committee(MPC)to move slightly closer to providing the economy with more stimulus. Indeed, a three way split vote looks likely this month. … MPC edging towards more …
House prices were more or less stable in September. Although it may appear that prices are stagnating at the moment, the renewed falls in mortgage market activity suggest that further declines in prices are on their way. … Nationwide House Prices …
Underlying broad money growth still looks very weak – supporting MPC member Adam Posen’s view that more quantitative easing (QE) will be required in order to boost money and credit growth and hence support overall economic activity. … Monetary Indicators …
29th September 2010
The latest mortgage lending statistics from the Bank of England show that mortgage market activity weakened once again in August. Declining buyer demand means that approvals could drop even further from here. … Mortgage Lending …
