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Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers pushing through much-needed fiscal consolidation. The most …
21st November 2024
Interest rate cuts still a few months away (at least) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, suggest that analysts’ expectations for an easing cycle to …
Recession not enough for MNB to resume easing The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, despite the economy having just fallen back into recession. We think that the easing cycle will remain on pause over the next …
19th November 2024
Yet another week of disappointing activity data … The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to concerns about the health of the region’s economies. Poland’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q , while GDP …
15th November 2024
Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the economic implications for Russia and Ukraine, for Europe …
14th November 2024
Poland’s economy stumbles in Q3 The 0.2% q/q contraction in Polish GDP in Q3 partly reflects the impact of flooding in September, the impact of which will reverse this quarter. Even so, we have become a bit more concerned about underlying weakness in the …
Growth slowing, but inflation pressures still strong The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum in growth over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary …
13th November 2024
End to the war in Ukraine in sight? One of the most important channels through which Donald Trump’s victory in the US election could affect Emerging Europe – and the global geopolitical landscape – is if he seeks to end the war in Ukraine, as he pledged …
8th November 2024
Easing cycle on pause, waiting for more clarity on fiscal policy The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, against a backdrop of stubborn above-target inflation and concerns about the loose fiscal stance ahead …
Easing cycle to continue, but risk of slower pace of cuts The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and we still think that the conditions will be in place for the policy rate to be lowered to its estimated neutral …
7th November 2024
NBP leaves rates on hold, risks to our rate forecast shift up slightly The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we think that interest rate cuts are unlikely to …
6th November 2024
Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in the coming months too. Consensus expectations for the …
5th November 2024
Another upside surprise likely to reenforce CBRT’s hawkish stance The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in October, to 48.6% y/y, is likely to dash any remaining hopes that a monetary easing cycle will start this year. The risks now seem …
4th November 2024
CEE struggling, Hungary in a league of its own The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region. The Czech economy grew by just 0.3% q/q – in line with our forecast, but some way below the central …
1st November 2024
The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP growth in many parts of the region looks as though it will come in below our previous expectations this year. That said, above-target inflation remains a concern, and we …
31st October 2024
Growth slowing further in Q3, but consumer spending remains strong The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for September were a bit stronger than expected, although GDP growth still probably slowed over Q3 as a whole towards 3.0% …
30th October 2024
Central Europe continues to struggle The weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe, which showed that the Hungarian economy slipped back into recession last quarter, suggests that stagnating demand from the euro-zone is continuing to act as a …
Has Poland’s consumer recovery gone into reverse? The downside surprise in Polish retail sales data this week was the biggest at any point in the past decade. (See Chart 1.) In contrast to expectations for a slight slowdown in growth to +2.0% y/y in …
25th October 2024
Surprise 200bp hike takes policy rate to a new high The decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to hike its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp today, to 21.00%, is evidence that – despite President Putin’s efforts at this week’s BRICS summit …
A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets (notably Turkey) could hike rates and others that are …
24th October 2024
MNB pauses easing cycle again The Hungarian central bank (MNB) acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the policy rate will be …
22nd October 2024
Retail sales collapse in September, but weakness probably temporary The much weaker-than-expected Polish retail sales data for September suggest that the economy slowed more than we had been expecting in Q3. Even so, we think that this weakness was …
The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter should unwind, we think that wage growth will generally …
21st October 2024
External developments: the good, the bad & the ugly The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating …
18th October 2024
Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings should pave the way for improved fiscal positions, stronger …
17th October 2024
Slow pace of disinflation will prevent monetary easing this year The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was accompanied by communications which support our view that monetary easing is …
Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation figures for September released today will provide some …
15th October 2024
Inflation declines, but another rate hike looking more likely Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks …
11th October 2024
Some encouraging signs in the latest CPI data The batch of September inflation data out of the region this week offered some welcome signs for central banks. In Hungary, the headline rate fell to 3.0% y/y – its lowest rate since January 2021 and slightly …
War concerns drive further hawkish tilt at the BoI The communications alongside the decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, underline that policymakers have grown more concerned about the escalation of …
9th October 2024
Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing hostilities across the Middle East. The latest ratcheting up …
4th October 2024
Easing cycle paused, and cuts in 2025 will be limited The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to pause its easing cycle today, leaving the policy rate at 6.50%, seems to reflect growing concern about the persistence of underlying inflationary …
The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP. While personal income and corporate tax hikes will help to …
3rd October 2024
Stronger-than-expected inflation rules out rate cuts this year The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank (CBRT), and supports our view that a …
NBP on hold, monetary easing in 2025 will be limited The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we continue to think that the easing cycle won’t resume until mid-2025. …
2nd October 2024
PMIs sink in Turkey and Russia The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMIs in Turkey and Russia in September provide further evidence that their economies are slowing. But the continued rise in the prices balances of the survey in Russia will be a concern …
1st October 2024
The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own, this escalation would point to higher oil prices and …
30th September 2024
Fiscal risks in Romania continue to build Romania’s fiscal watchdog this week warned that the country’s budget deficit could come in at 8.0% of GDP this year. This is significantly above the government’s original target of 5.0% and also above its new …
27th September 2024
ESIs point to robust growth in Q3 The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations in the services …
Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus GDP growth in most countries this year. The export-orientated economies of Central and Eastern Europe will be held back by stagnating demand from key euro-zone …
26th September 2024
CNB cuts by 25bp again, easing cycle has further to run The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to cut its policy rate by a further 25bp today, to 4.25%, was followed by communications which, on balance, felt a bit more dovish than at the last …
25th September 2024
Easing cycle resumes ... for now The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to resume its easing cycle today suggests that the central bank could pause interest rate cuts again very soon. We expect just one further …
24th September 2024
Growth softening The weaker-than-expected set of Polish activity data for August suggest that GDP growth softened over Q3. That said, we still maintain our forecast for relatively strong growth of 3.0% for this year as a whole, and this batch of data is …
23rd September 2024
Storm Boris floods Central Europe The flooding in Central Europe over the past week has been described as the worst in the region in the last two decades and our thoughts are with those affected. The most heavily impacted areas have been in Poland, …
20th September 2024
CBRT still waiting for further disinflation The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 50.00%, were slightly more dovish than last month, but there are no clear signs to us …
19th September 2024
Overview – We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the coming quarters, while tight policy will take some heat …
17th September 2024
The ECB’s easing cycle continued this week and the first Fed rate cut is just around the corner, but we still think that central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are now at the beginning of a slower phase of their easing cycles and will loosen …
13th September 2024
CBR delivers surprise hike The decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to hike its policy rate today by 100bp, to 19.00%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about the inflation outlook than we’d previously thought. While our forecast is …
The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia) a green light to lower interest rates, EM rate …
12th September 2024
Inflation stabilises, rates to be left on hold Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting on …
11th September 2024
