Filtered by Subscriptions: Asia Economics Use setting Asia Economics
Autos in the firing line Donald Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25% tariffs on all automotive imports into the US from 3 rd April could be a big deal for parts of Asia. Korea and Japan are the most vulnerable. Exports of these products to the US …
28th March 2025
BoK’s dovish minutes This week’s publication of the minutes from the Bank of Korea’s February meeting , at which it cut rates for a third time in four meetings, show the Bank is becoming increasingly worried about the poor growth outlook. The concern was …
21st March 2025
Duterte arrest puts political instability in spotlight The arrest this week of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court for his role in extra-judicial killings of over 6,000 suspected drug dealers has no direct …
14th March 2025
Taiwan vulnerable to semiconductor tariffs China, Mexico and Canada have so far been the focus of Trump’s tariff measures. But it seems likely other countries will soon enter the firing line. Given its large trade surplus with the US, Taiwan is an …
7th March 2025
Korea: jump in fertility unlikely to last Figures published earlier this week showed the fertility rate in Korea increased last year for the first time in nine years, rising from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.75 in 2024. (See Chart 1.) This uptick, though still below …
28th February 2025
Singapore’s budget focused on election Singapore’s budget on Wednesday included a number of measures designed to boost support for the government ahead of the general election that must be held by November. They included spending vouchers worth S$800 …
21st February 2025
India most vulnerable to reciprocal tariff President Trump looks to have abandoned the idea of imposing a flat universal tariff of 10%-20% on all imports to the US, and now appears to be favouring new reciprocal tariffs that will be imposed on a …
14th February 2025
Trade war begins: winners and losers in Asia Donald Trump’s 10% tariffs on China (along with those threatened for Mexico and Canada) could prove to be the start of a protracted trade war. (See here .) While there is a lot of uncertainty over what will …
7th February 2025
Pakistan: easing to be more gradual from here The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate earlier this week by a further 100bps (to 12.0%), the sixth consecutive meeting at which rates were lowered. However, the accompanying statement makes …
31st January 2025
Homegrown problems a bigger risk to growth Our assumption is that Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all US imports (including on Korea), most likely sometime in the second quarter. On its own this would not have a huge impact on Korea, since a universal …
24th January 2025
Korea: political crisis weighing on growth The political crisis in Korea is continuing to drag on, with no clear sign of when or how it will come to an end. President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested this week on charges of insurrection following his …
17th January 2025
Signs that political crisis is weighing on growth With inflation under control and signs the political crisis is weighing on the already-weak economy, we expect the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates by a further 25bps at its meeting on Thursday. …
10th January 2025
Dovish BoK minutes point to further rate cuts This week’s publication of the minutes from the Bank of Korea’s November meeting , at which it cut rates for a second month in a row, confirmed that inflation concerns have now largely subsided and that the …
20th December 2024
Deflation concerns to sway BoT After a relatively quiet week in terms of scheduled events and releases, the coming week sees central bank meetings in Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. We are expecting holds in Indonesia and …
13th December 2024
Prolonged crisis would weigh on the economy The easiest way out of the political crisis that Korea finds itself in would be for President Yoon Suk Yeol to resign. A resignation would trigger a presidential election within 60 days. Given the extent of …
6th December 2024
Activity data highlight need for further support We were one of the few analysts to correctly predict this week’s rate cut by the Bank of Korea , and we think it is only a matter of time before the Bank cuts again. The central bank’s statement and the …
29th November 2024
More policy support is needed When the Bank of Korea started its easing cycle in October , it pushed back strongly against the prospect of back-to-back rate cuts. Most analysts still expect rates to be left unchanged at 3.25% when the central bank meets …
22nd November 2024
New currency forecast and policy implications We have finalised our financial market forecasts following Donald Trump’s election victory. In short, we think US Treasury yields will remain elevated over the coming year (we previously anticipated falls) …
15th November 2024
Financial market and monetary policy impact Asian currencies fell against the dollar after the US election result was announced, and we think they will weaken over the coming months on the back of higher US Treasury yields and an increase in US tariffs. …
8th November 2024
Risks from North Korea on the rise North Korea’s relations with South Korea and its allies have taken a marked turn for the worse over the past month. This week’s test of an intercontinental ballistic missile has prompted South Korea and the US to conduct …
1st November 2024
Weak GDP data may give BoK second thoughts National accounts data published on Thursday showed that Korea only narrowly avoided a technical recession, with GDP expanding by just 0.1% q/q in Q3 after a 0.2% decline in Q2. The main drag came from exports, …
25th October 2024
Property prices flat last month One reason the Bank of Korea pushed back against the prospect of another near-term rate cut at its meeting last week was fear of a rebound in property prices that might threaten financial stability. We think this concern is …
18th October 2024
Bank of Korea cuts The Bank of Korea kickstarted its easing cycle earlier today with a 25bps cut. As we outlined here , with GDP growth struggling and price pressures very weak, further easing is likely over the coming months. BI unlikely to cut again …
11th October 2024
Korea – weak data point to first rate cut With inflation below target and activity data pointing to a further slowdown, we expect the Bank of Korea to kickstart its easing cycle at its scheduled monetary policy meeting next Friday. September’s inflation …
4th October 2024
Fiscal policy to hold back Pakistan’s recovery The IMF this week approved a new long-term US$7bn loan for Pakistan. The country will receive the first US$1bn immediately, with the remainder to be paid over the three years of the deal. Pakistan was close …
27th September 2024
Election risk to Sri Lanka’s recovery Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 crisis which saw the country default on its debts and the president ejected from power in the face of huge popular protests. Data released late …
20th September 2024
What will the US election mean for the Asia growth outlook? Will China’s economy overtake the US? Will India fulfil its growth potential? We’re tackling these issues and more in our Asia roundtable in London on Tuesday, 24th September. If you’d like to …
13th September 2024
Indonesia budget eases fiscal concerns Indonesia’s budget for 2025 moved a step closer to being passed this week after a parliamentary committee and the government reached agreement on the main fiscal targets for next year. (The budget will now be put …
6th September 2024
Falling fertility bodes poorly for long-run outlook Data released this week showed that Korea's fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime) dropped further to 0.72 last year (see Chart 1), the lowest of …
30th August 2024
Currency concerns abating Three central banks announced policy decisions this week and all three kept rates on hold. At first glance then, an uneventful week. But there were dovish signs across the board that suggest all three will ease policy soon. We …
23rd August 2024
Further political uncertainty in Thailand Today’s election by Thailand’s parliament of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister is unlikely to draw a line under the country’s mounting political instability. Paetongtarn’s father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck …
16th August 2024
Our Asia team will be holding a Drop-In on Wednesday 14th August at 0830 ET/1330 BST to discuss the timing of Asian interest rate cuts and the impact of global markets volatility. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. US growth …
9th August 2024
Bank of Korea to wait until October to cut rates Korean GDP figures published last week showed that the economy contracted in the second quarter, and monthly data for June and July published this week confirm that the economy is struggling. Although …
2nd August 2024
Korea’s unbalanced economy Figures published earlier this week showed that GDP in Korea contracted in the second quarter of the year. While the outturn was below analyst expectations, it was exactly in line with our own estimate. The figures also …
26th July 2024
Slowdown in growth over the coming quarters The highlight of the coming week is the publication of the first estimate of Korean GDP growth for Q2. Korea’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year, with growth hitting 1.3% q/q, which …
19th July 2024
Korea strike highlights inflexible labour market A trade union representing approximately 30,000 workers at Samsung Electronics this week urged its members to take part in an indefinite strike. The announcement was made on Wednesday, which was supposed …
12th July 2024
Indonesia needs reform not tariffs Indonesia has become the latest country in Asia to announce measures to stem the flow of cheap imports from China. It is planning to impose tariffs of up to 200% on a range of products, including footwear, clothing, …
5th July 2024
Further economic weakness in Korea Korea’s economy weakened markedly in May. Data published today show that retail sales fell by 0.2% m/m last month, a second consecutive monthly fall. With the labour market cooling and high interest rates weighing on …
28th June 2024
Thailand – supportive fiscal policy Most countries in Asia are planning to tighten fiscal policy as they aim to put government finances on a more secure footing following a sharp rise in debt levels during the pandemic. One exception to this is …
21st June 2024
Malaysia subsidy cuts to push up inflation Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change. Long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public finances started this week when the government lowered …
14th June 2024
Weak growth to prompt Thailand rate cut We expect the Bank of Thailand to start its easing cycle on Wednesday. The economy is certainly in need of support. Although GDP returned to growth in the first quarter of the year, output was still only 1.7% above …
7th June 2024
Vietnam rate hike risk The risk of monetary tightening in Vietnam has risen over the past few weeks due to concerns about the currency and inflation. We still think a rate hike is unlikely. But even if the central bank (SBV) did raise rates now, we think …
31st May 2024
Singapore’s economy to remain weak this year The second estimate of first quarter GDP (published on Thursday) confirmed that growth in Singapore slowed sharply last quarter. In q/q terms, the economy expanded by just 0.1%, down from 1.2% in the final …
24th May 2024
Weak growth a concern for the central bank Bank Indonesia is the only central bank in the region with a mandate to ensure currency stability. While we had not been expecting the central bank to raise interest rates at its April meeting , the move didn’t …
17th May 2024
Weak growth a concern for the central bank The central bank in the Philippines has left interest rates unchanged since a hike in October 2023. Another hold at its scheduled meeting on Thursday is almost certain. Instead, the main interest will be on the …
10th May 2024
Rate cuts still likely despite strong Q1 growth In a speech this week at an Asian Development Bank conference, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee said that strong GDP growth in the first quarter meant the Bank would need to reconsider the timing of possible …
3rd May 2024
Surprise hike by Bank Indonesia Bank Indonesia surprised financial markets (and ourselves) when it raised interest rates at its scheduled meeting on Wednesday. The hike was a direct response to the increased uncertainty in global financial markets …
26th April 2024
Worries about the currency Bank Indonesia is the only central bank in emerging Asia that has a mandate to ensure currency stability. It surprised markets (and us) when it raised interest rates to support the rupiah at its October meeting. With the …
19th April 2024
Is Yoon now a lame duck? President Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) in Korea won just 108 of the 300 seats up for grabs in this week’s parliamentary election, down from 119 in the previous parliament. That left the Democratic Party (DP) and some smaller …
12th April 2024
BoT tightened in 2023 policy despite weak data The Bank of Thailand surprised most economists and financial markets last year when it continued to tighten monetary policy even as inflation dropped well below target (see Chart 1) and growth slowed. Chart …
5th April 2024
