Our assumption is that Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all US imports (including on Korea), most likely sometime in the second quarter. On its own this would not have a huge impact on Korea, since a universal tariff would leave all non-US producers on a level playing field. There is a risk that Trump could target individual countries with even bigger tariffs. But if Trump were to go after countries with the largest trade imbalances with the US, Korea can take some consolation that it is way down that list.
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