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Bernie Sanders is still a long way from the White House, but several of his policies look very negative for US equities. If his support continues to climb that could start to weigh on the US stock market. It remains up for debate whether Bernie Sanders or …
7th February 2020
We wouldn’t be surprised if the recent recovery of EM equities continued over the coming weeks, with the stock markets of those countries that fell furthest following the outbreak of the coronavirus making up lost ground. Nonetheless, we wouldn’t expect …
6th February 2020
Germany’s industrial production probably contracted again in Q4 (07.00 GMT) The central bank of Russia is likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 6.00% (10.30 GMT) We forecast that US non-farm payrolls increased by 185,000 in January (13.30 GMT) Key …
Impeachment trial to end with President Trump’s acquittal later on Wednesday Central banks in Brazil and the Philippines likely to cut their policy rates by 25bp … … while policymakers in the Czech Republic will probably leave rates on hold Key Market …
5th February 2020
Central banks of Brazil, Thailand and Iceland are all likely to cut their policy rates by 25bp We forecast that euro-zone retail sales dropped by 1.2% m/m in December (10.00 GMT) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably rose in January (15.00 GMT) Key …
4th February 2020
US Democratic nomination kicks off, with Sanders the frontrunner in Iowa The RBA is likely to stand pat for now, but we think that it will soon resume its easing cycle Provincial debt saga may set the tone for Argentina’s sovereign debt talks Key Market …
3rd February 2020
Although there remains significant political uncertainty in many euro-zone countries, we doubt that this will prevent most government bond yields from falling a bit further this year. Expectations for monetary policy often have the biggest influence on …
We think both of the US ISM surveys rebounded in January (Monday & Wednesday) Brazil’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate on Wednesday We forecast a solid 185,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls in January (Friday) Key Market Themes As the clock …
31st January 2020
The market impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China has escalated over recent days, and increasingly resembles last year’s trade-war-driven turmoil in May and August. But unless the fallout from the epidemic escalates significantly, it is hard to see …
China’s official PMIs might give us an idea of the impact on confidence from the virus outbreak We think that Italy’s economy stagnated in Q4 (09.00 GMT) … … but growth in France and Spain probably held up better Key Market Themes The Bank of England left …
30th January 2020
We think that the Bank of England will defy expectations for a rate cut (12.00 GMT) January’s euro-zone sentiment survey will probably point to a weak Q1 (10.00 GMT) US GDP growth is likely to have ticked down in Q4 (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes A sharp …
29th January 2020
Official talks between Argentina’s new government and the IMF over the future of its record-breaking bailout started this month but, with the government having already restructured some of its local law debts, the need for urgent external financing has …
Weaker underlying price pressures probably pushed Australia’s inflation down (00.30 GMT) We expect the Fed to leave rates on hold on Wednesday, and throughout 2020 (19.00 GMT) Chile’s central bank likely to keep its policy rate at 1.75% (21.00 GMT) Key …
28th January 2020
China’s ban on outbound travel likely to have significant impact on the rest of EM Asia Central banks in Hungary and Pakistan likely to keep rates on hold US headline durable goods probably fell in December as aircraft sales slumped (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
27th January 2020
After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets will eventually unwind, since we simply don’t know how it …
BoE is likely to defy expectations for a rate cut; the Fed will also probably stand pat We estimate that US GDP growth slowed to 2.0% annualised in Q4 (Thursday) China’s official PMI might give us an idea of the impact on confidence from the flu outbreak …
24th January 2020
Despite lingering uncertainty around the next phase of the UK’s exit from the EU, we think that there is more upside for sterling, Gilt yields, and UK equities. The UK is set to leave the EU on 31 st January, but the risk of a disorderly end to the …
ECB and Norges Bank likely to keep policy settings unchanged at their respective meetings We think that both imports and exports increased in Japan in December (Wed., 23.50 GMT) Consumer confidence in the euro-zone probably improved a bit in January …
22nd January 2020
While we have altered our forecasts for ECB policy this year, we are still more dovish than investors about the outlook for interest rates in the euro-zone. As such, we continue to think that government bond yields in the region will fall back and that …
21st January 2020
Bank of Japan likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday We think that Taiwan’s GDP grew by 2.8% y/y in Q4 (08.00 GMT) The UK unemployment rate probably remained at 3.8% in November (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Although the …
20th January 2020
We think that China’s loan prime rate edged down by 5bp in January (Monday) ECB will probably keep its deposit rate at -0.5%, but we expect a cut later this year (Thursday) Central banks in Norway, Canada, Malaysia and Nigeria are also likely to leave …
17th January 2020
While the dollar looks overvalued on most metrics, and has risen significantly over recent years, we don’t think that it is very overvalued. In our view, its valuation will not stop it from strengthening a bit further over the next couple of years. …
Optimism about a Phase One deal has driven the rally in Chinese equities and the renminbi since late 2019. But now that the deal has been signed, this ought to be fully discounted in the markets. And with a Phase Two deal unlikely anytime soon, if at all, …
16th January 2020
We think that activity growth in China held steady in December (02.00 GMT) US housing starts are likely to have risen last month (13.30 GMT)… … But industrial production probably fell (14.15 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite renewed appetite for risk …
Russia’s government resigns, paving the way for Mr Putin to remain president after 2024 The central banks of Turkey and Egypt will probably cut their policy rates We think that US retail sales grew at a slightly stronger pace in December (13.30 GMT) Key …
15th January 2020
According to our estimates, Germany’s annual GDP increased by 0.5% in 2019 (07.00 GMT) We think that UK CPI inflation remained at 1.5% in December (09.30 GMT) The US and China are scheduled to sign “phase-one” trade deal Key Market Themes Corporate …
14th January 2020
We think that the returns from emerging market (EM) equities in 2020 won’t be anywhere as good as in 2019. While this view is partly premised on our forecast that earnings growth will generally be weak, valuations are also unlikely to provide much …
13th January 2020
Export and import growth in China is likely to have improved in December Higher gasoline prices and base effects probably pushed US headline CPI inflation up Chinese delegation arrives in Washington to sign “phase-one” trade deal Key Market Themes While …
The US and China are expected to sign a “phase-one” trade deal on Wednesday We think that Germany’s economy expanded by just 0.5% last year (Wednesday) Turkey’s central bank is likely to cut rates by 100bp, despite a pick-up in inflation (Thursday) Key …
10th January 2020
Corporate bond markets in the US, the UK and the euro-zone have started 2020 on a strong footing, largely reflecting expectations that monetary policy there will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. While we agree with investors that central …
Australia’s retail sales probably remained weak in November (00.30 GMT) We estimate that US non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in December … … and think that the unemployment rate remained at a 50-year low of 3.5% (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes EM …
9th January 2020
While corporate earnings in the US will probably recover a bit this year, we think that they will fall short of expectations of a big rebound. And given that we don’t expect valuations to rise anything like as fast as they did last year, we anticipate …
The EC Business & Consumer Survey will probably point to sluggish growth in the euro-zone We suspect that Poland’s central bank will hold fire despite a recent rise in inflation US labour market conditions are likely to have remained robust in December …
7th January 2020
Euro-zone core CPI inflation is likely to have edged down in December (10.00 GMT) We estimate that the US trade deficit narrowed to a three-year low in November (13.30 GMT) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably increased a bit last month (15.00 GMT) …
6th January 2020
Euro-zone core inflation is likely to have declined in December (Tuesday) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably rebounded (Tuesday) We think that US non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 last month (Friday) Key Market Themes Both US Treasuries and …
3rd January 2020
Germany’s inflation probably rose a bit last month, but remained well below 2% (13.00 GMT) We think that the US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.0 in December (15.00 GMT) FOMC minutes are likely to signal that the Fed will remain on hold this year …
2nd January 2020
After large gains for both bonds and equities in 2019, we expect that both will fare less well next year. And, in contrast to most other forecasters, we think that the US dollar will rise further in 2020. While we forecast that the global economy will …
23rd December 2019
Argentine and Lebanese sovereign dollar bond spreads have narrowed over the past month (see Chart 1), but we think that they will widen again before long. The narrowing has been most dramatic in Argentina, where the new finance minister struck a …
19th December 2019
Japan’s core inflation probably remained at 0.7% in November (Thu., 23.30 GMT) We expect China’s 1-Year Loan Prime Rate to be lowered by 5bp (Fri., 01.30 GMT) Euro-zone consumer confidence index likely to have edged down this month (Fri., 15.00 GMT) Key …
Despite a rise in oil prices over the past couple of months, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have underperformed most other G10 currencies. Nonetheless, we expect both to fare better next year. Since the start of October, the price of Brent …
We expect Sweden’s Riksbank to hike rates on Thursday, but cut next year (08.30 GMT) The central banks of Mexico and Indonesia are likely to ease policy on Thursday … … while those in the UK, Japan, Norway and Taiwan will probably leave rates unchanged …
18th December 2019
Japan’s import volumes are likely to have declined in November (23.50 GMT) Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index probably edged higher in December (09.00 GMT) We think that UK CPI inflation was unchanged last month (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes As the …
17th December 2019
Despite recent optimism about trade and Brexit, we doubt that equities in developed markets (DMs) will fare as well next year as they have in 2019. That said, those in the UK will be an exception in our view. Two key factors have boosted equities across …
“Phase-one” deal unlikely to put an end to the US-China trade war Bank of England will probably hold off cutting rates for now (Thursday) We expect the PBOC to nudge down its 1-year loan prime rate (Friday) Key Market Themes Sterling and Gilt yields …
13th December 2019
The UK general election has provided a clearer path towards a resolution to Brexit and looser fiscal policy, which should boost economic activity and push up sterling, UK equities, and Gilt yields. That said, as long as there remains the possibility of …
First UK general election results due around 23.00 GMT on Thursday The central bank of Russia will probably cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 6.25% (10.30 GMT) We think that US headline retail sales rose strongly in November (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
12th December 2019
The Fed is likely stay on the side-lines for the foreseeable future (Wednesday, 19.00 GMT) We think a 50bp rate cut in Brazil will be the last of this cycle (Wednesday, 21.20 GMT) Lagarde may provide details on the ECB’s strategic policy review (Thursday, …
11th December 2019
Optimism about an imminent resolution to the trade war between the US and China and subsiding protests in Latin America have supported EM currencies over the past month. But, barring a few exceptions, we think that they will weaken against the US dollar …
We forecast that core CPI inflation in the US remained at 2.3% in November (13.30 GMT) FOMC likely to leave its target range for the fed funds rate at 1.50-1.75% (19.00 GMT) The central bank of Brazil will probably cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.50% …
10th December 2019
Norway’s headline CPI inflation probably slowed in November (07.00 GMT) We think that the UK economy grew by 0.1% m/m in October (09.30 GMT) Inflation in Egypt is likely to have remained below the central bank’s target Key Market Themes The jump in oil …
9th December 2019
