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We expect a small rebound in the US ISM non-manufacturing index (Tue.) The central bank of Iceland is likely to cut its policy rate for the 5 th time this year (Tue.) … … while the Bank of England will probably stand pat for now (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
1st November 2019
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI probably dropped back in October (01.45 GMT) Inflation in Switzerland may have turned negative (07.30 GMT) We suspect that non-farm payrolls increased by just 25,000 due to the GM strike (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We …
31st October 2019
The Fed will probably cut interest rates by a further 25bp (Wednesday, 19.00 GMT) We think that the Bank of Japan will leave rates unchanged after its policy review (Thursday) China’s PMIs are likely to have dropped a bit in October (Thursday, 01.00 GMT) …
30th October 2019
We think that US GDP slowed to 1.5% annualised in Q3 (12.30 BST) Bank of Canada is likely to keep rates on hold, but cut its growth forecasts (14.00 BST) Another 25bp rate cut by the Fed is widely expected (18.00 BST) Key Market Themes The 10-year US …
29th October 2019
UK PM Boris Johnson will probably agree to delay Brexit until 31 st January at the latest … … and might get Parliament’s approval for a general election in early-December US consumer confidence probably rebounded in October (14.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
28th October 2019
EU leaders to discuss whether to grant a delay to Brexit and, if so, for how long Germany’s IfO Business Climate Index (BCI) probably fell slightly in October (09.00 BST) Central Bank of Russia likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 6.50% (11.30 BST) …
24th October 2019
We expect central banks in Indonesia and Turkey to cut their policy rates Internal divisions will remain the focus at Draghi’s last ECB meeting GM strike probably took a toll on US durable goods orders in September (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Higher …
23rd October 2019
UK Parliament scheduled to vote on Withdrawal Agreement Bill (Tuesday, 19.00 BST) Euro-zone consumer confidence probably worsened in October (Wednesday, 15.00 BST) Central bank of Chile likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp (Wednesday, 22.00 BST) Key …
22nd October 2019
Ongoing protests in Chile unlikely to have much of an impact on financial markets UK government spending probably rose in September (09.30 BST) We estimate that retail sales in Canada picked up in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The comparatively …
21st October 2019
UK Parliament’s vote on the new Brexit deal is likely to be very tight (Saturday) No policy changes likely at Draghi’s last meeting as ECB President (Thursday) Central banks in China, Turkey, Indonesia and Russia will probably cut rates Key Market Themes …
18th October 2019
China’s industrial production and retail sales probably recovered in September … … but we still think the economy slowed in Q3 as a whole (03.00 BST) Fed Clarida’s speech could shed some light on the probability of an October hike Key Market Themes Stock …
17th October 2019
Retail sales in the UK are likely to have fallen again in September (09.30 BST) We estimate that US manufacturing output fell by 0.5% in September … … but industrial production probably declined by less as utilities output jumped Key Market Themes So much …
16th October 2019
The Bank of Korea will probably cut its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 BST) UK inflation is likely to have rebounded a bit last month (09.30 BST) We estimate that US retail sales rose by 0.2% m/m in September (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We think that …
15th October 2019
The UK and EU will try to strike a Brexit deal at a summit ending on Thursday US manufacturing output probably slumped in September We expect the Bank of Korea to cut its policy rate on Wednesday Key Market Themes Equity and bond markets have remained at …
11th October 2019
High-level trade talks between the US & China probably won’t lead to a comprehensive deal The central bank of Peru might cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% (00.00 BST) We think that consumer confidence in the US improved slightly in October (15.00 BST) …
10th October 2019
Even if US and China reach a partial trade deal this week, we doubt that it will last Account of ECB’s September meeting to highlight divisions among policymakers Latest round of tariffs probably drove US CPI inflation higher (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
9th October 2019
Fed Chair Jerome Powell might give hints about future path of interest rates Germany’s industrial production probably declined in August (07.00 BST) We think that US producer prices fell a bit last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes As the euro-zone …
7th October 2019
FOMC minutes for September to shed some light on the Fed’s thinking (Wednesday) The account of the last ECB meeting may show the extent of division in the council (Thursday) US CPI probably jumped, as the latest tariffs on Chinese imports start to bite …
4th October 2019
UK services PMI likely to have dropped back in September (09.30 BST) We think that euro-zone retail sales fell again in August (10.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index probably edged down only slightly last month (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes The recent …
2nd October 2019
Switzerland’s CPI inflation probably remained subdued in September (07.30 BST) We expect the policy rate to be cut in Iceland but remain unchanged in Poland US ADP’s measure of private-sector employment likely to be subdued (13.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
1st October 2019
RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (05.30 BST) We think that euro-zone headline inflation fell to about 0.8% in September (10.00 BST) The US ISM manufacturing index probably rebounded this month (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While …
30th September 2019
Chinese PMIs will probably show that the economy remains under pressure (Monday) RBA likely to cut its key policy rate by 25bp, to 0.75% (Tuesday) We expect a subdued 125,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls (Friday) Key Market Themes Euro-zone government …
27th September 2019
Mexico’s central bank will probably cut rates later on Thursday We think that the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to a 4½-year low (10.00 BST) US personal spending data likely to show another rise in consumption in August (13.30 BST) Key …
26th September 2019
UK MPs to return to Parliament on Wednesday following Supreme Court ruling We think that the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rate by 25bp (08.05 BST) But the New Zealand and Czech central banks will probably leave policy unchanged Key Market Themes …
24th September 2019
We think that the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator fell to a near-decade low (09.00 BST) UK Supreme Court to give its ruling on the prorogation of Parliament (10.30 BST) The central banks of Colombia and Hungary will probably leave rates unchanged …
23rd September 2019
Economic sentiment indices for the euro-zone and Germany probably edged up in September We expect the central banks of Mexico, Thailand, the Philippines and Egypt to cut rates Those in New Zealand, Colombia, the Czech Republic and Hungary are likely to …
20th September 2019
A drop in fresh food prices probably weighed on Japan’s headline CPI inflation (00.50 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have bounced back in July (13.30 BST) We suspect that euro-zone consumer confidence deteriorated in September (15.00 BST) Key …
19th September 2019
The Fed is highly likely to deliver a 25bp cut at today’s FOMC meeting We expect Brazil’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp this evening But both the Bank of England and BoJ will probably keep rates on hold Key Market Themes The surge in US …
18th September 2019
We think that Japan’s export values dropped by more than 10% y/y in August (08.50 BST) The FOMC will probably cut rates by 25bp for the second time in a row (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank is also likely to lower its main policy rate Key Market Themes …
17th September 2019
FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday widely expected to result in a 25bp rate cut UK-EU Brexit talks set to “intensify”, increasing optimism about a deal We think that US industrial production rebounded by 0.2% m/m in August (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
16th September 2019
Cyclical headwinds to activity and spending in China may have abated slightly (Mon) US industrial production probably rebounded by about 0.2% m/m in August (Tue) Fed highly likely to cut rates again, but we think that the BoJ and BoE will stand pat Key …
13th September 2019
Peru’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate later today Euro-zone pay growth probably picked up in Q2, but we doubt it will last (10.00 BST) We suspect that US retail sales rose only slightly in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although the …
12th September 2019
The central bank of Poland is likely to stand pat, and strike a more hawkish tone Mexico’s industrial production probably edged down in July (12.00 BST) We think that both headline and core producer price inflation picked up in the US (13.30 BST) Key …
10th September 2019
UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election this evening Climbing food prices probably pushed China’s inflation higher in August (02.30 BST) We think that core inflation in Norway and Sweden edged up last month Key …
9th September 2019
UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election (Monday) We expect the ECB to cut deposit rate by 10bp and reinforce forward guidance (Thursday) US retail sales probably increased slightly in August (Friday) Key Market …
6th September 2019
Germany’s industrial production is likely to have fallen further in July (07.00 BST) Russia’s central bank will probably cut its deposit rate by 25bp (11.30 BST) We estimate that US non-farm payrolls increased by 110,000 last month (13.30 BST) Key Market …
5th September 2019
We expect Chile’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 25bp The US trade deficit is likely to have narrowed in July as exports rebounded … … but Canada’s trade balance probably dropped back into the red (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Boris Johnson’s …
3rd September 2019
Argentina’s capital controls storing up more trouble for the future UK Parliament will try to block a no-deal Brexit as it returns from its summer recess The US ISM manufacturing index probably rebounded in August (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Despite the …
2nd September 2019
Activity in China’s manufacturing sector probably improved in August (Monday) Policy rates are likely to be cut in Ukraine, Russia and Chile We estimate that US non-farm payrolls increase by 110,000 last month (Friday) Key Market Themes The Bank of Japan …
30th August 2019
Sterling falls as threat of parliamentary suspension fuels fears of a no-deal Brexit EC Business and Consumer Survey probably fell to a 41-month low in August (10.00 BST) We estimate that the US economy grew by 2% q/q annualised in Q2 (13.30 BST) Key …
28th August 2019
We think that Germany’s Ifo survey deteriorated further in August (Monday) Euro-zone inflation probably remained subdued in August (Friday) Divergence between US manufacturing sector and real consumption likely to have persisted Key Market Themes Jerome …
23rd August 2019
US FOMC minutes might give details about support for further easing (Wed. 19.00 BST) We think that the euro-zone composite PMI and consumer confidence index fell in August Account of last ECB meeting may hint at size of further stimulus (Thurs. 13.30 BST) …
21st August 2019
Italian PM Conte has announced his resignation, raising the chance of early elections UK PM Johnson to discuss Brexit backstop with French and German leaders ahead of G7 Minutes from last US FOMC meeting might give indications about future easing (19.00 …
20th August 2019
The PBOC’s may loosen policy again as it launches a new loan prime rate Italy’s government is likely to lose a vote of no confidence on Tuesday Russia’s weak activity data in July probably pave the way for further policy stimulus Key Market Themes Hopes …
19th August 2019
Japan’s exports probably fell at a slower pace in July (Monday) Powell could signal that the Fed will cut rates further at Jackson Hole symposium (Thursday) We think that policymakers will cut rates in Egypt but stand pat in Indonesia (Thursday) Key …
16th August 2019
We think that Mexico’s central bank will cut its policy rate to 8.00% (Thursday, 19.00 BST) GDP growth in Malaysia probably slowed a bit in Q2 (Friday, 05.00 BST) US consumer confidence likely to have deteriorated in August (Friday, 15.00 BST) Key Market …
15th August 2019
US retail sales growth is likely to have edged down in July (13.30 BST) We think that US industrial production fell by about 0.1% m/m in July (14.15 BST) Interest rates will probably be left on hold in Norway, but cut in Mexico Key Market Themes After a …
14th August 2019
US administration delays new tariffs on many Chinese imports until 15 th December Germany’s GDP probably contracted in Q2, and euro-zone growth may be revised down We think that UK CPI inflation remained at the BoE’s 2% target in July (09.30 BST) Key …
13th August 2019
Argentina’s financial markets likely to remain under pressure as focus returns to default risk UK unemployment probably fell in June but is unlikely to go much lower (09.30 BST) We think that US headline and core CPI inflation picked up in July (13.30 …
12th August 2019
US core CPI inflation is likely to have held steady at 2.1% (Monday) We think that GDP fell in Germany, and growth was revised down in the euro-zone, in Q2 Euro-zone and US industrial production probably ended Q2 on a weak note Key Market Themes Matteo …
9th August 2019
