A lot has been made of the divergence between the S&P 500 which is up a bit today, and the dire incoming economic data, like the latest ADP payrolls survey. The contrast between the two has led to suggestions that investors are wildly over-optimistic about the economic outlook. One way of getting a handle on whether this is actually the case is to take a look at analysts’ EPS forecasts, as the Q1 earnings season winds down.
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