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The UK budget will probably deliver measures to cushion the economic effects of COVID-19 We think that the ECB will follow the Fed and cut its deposit rate by 10bp (Thursday) University of Michigan survey to show that COVID-19 is weighing on US consumer …
6th March 2020
You can track the latest data on the coronavirus on this dedicated page on our website We think that US non-farm payrolls increased by 230,000 in February (13.30 GMT) The US trade deficit probably narrowed in January (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite …
5th March 2020
We now expect more rate cuts from the Fed , the ECB , the BoJ and the BoE OPEC+ likely to agree to cut oil output further in order to support prices We think that Australia’s trade surplus narrowed in January (00.30 GMT) Key Market Themes In an otherwise …
4th March 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
Bernie Sanders still favourite to win Super Tuesday Democratic primaries held in 15 states Central bank of Malaysia likely to cut rates, while RBA remains on hold Euro-zone headline inflation probably slowed in February as oil prices fell (10.00 GMT) Key …
We think that China’s manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level on record in February (Mon.) Bernie Sanders is on course to win the “Super Tuesday” primaries (Tue.) We forecast a 230,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls (Fri.) Key Market Themes The S&P 500 …
28th February 2020
We think that China’s GDP will contract in Q1 in y/y terms for the first time since the 1990s US consumption growth probably remained subdued at the start of the year (13.30 GMT) We forecast that Canada’s GDP rose by only 0.2% annualised in Q4 (13.30 GMT) …
27th February 2020
Central bank of Korea likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 1.00% The euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator probably held steady in February (10.00 GMT) We think that US GDP growth will be confirmed at 2.1% annualised in Q4 (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
26th February 2020
Lagarde’s speech may contain clues to the ECB’s likely response to the coronavirus outbreak We think that South Africa’s budget will include tax rises and spending cuts US new homes sales probably picked up in January (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
25th February 2020
The spread of coronavirus may be slowing in China, but cases elsewhere are rising fast We think that US consumer confidence rebounded in February (15.00 GMT) Final GDP estimate is likely to confirm that Germany’s economy stagnated in Q4 (07.00 GMT) Key …
24th February 2020
Euro-zone composite and manufacturing PMIs probably fell sharply in February (08.30 GMT) We expect the UK PMIs to show that the economy has started to turn a corner (09.30 GMT) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have risen a bit in December (13.30 GMT) …
20th February 2020
We think that the central bank of Egypt will lower its policy rate by 50bp, to 11.75% China’s 1-year Loan Prime Rate likely to be cut by 10bp, to 4.05% (00.30 GMT) Consumer confidence in the euro-zone probably deteriorated in February (15.00 GMT) Key …
19th February 2020
UK inflation probably rose to 1.8% in January, but the increase is likely to be fleeting We expect Turkey’s central bank to cut its one-week repo rate by 75bp (11.00 GMT) FOMC minutes may provide details on Fed’s strategy review and balance sheet plans …
18th February 2020
China’s central bank likely to loosen policy further UK Chief Negotiator due to give a speech in Brussels (Mon., 18.45 GMT) The UK unemployment rate probably edged up a bit in December (Tue., 09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We don’t expect Japan ’s economy …
17th February 2020
Sanders the frontrunner for Democratic nomination ahead of Nevada caucuses We expect Chinese banks to pass on the recent PBOC rate cut to their borrowers (Thu.) Coronavirus outbreak likely to have weighed on euro-zone business activity in February (Fri.) …
14th February 2020
We think that Germany’s GDP contracted in Q4 (07.00 GMT) US retail sales probably rose in January thanks to unusually-warm weather (13.30 GMT) We expect policymakers in Mexico and Peru to cut interest rates Key Market Themes The surprise change of …
13th February 2020
We think that US core inflation edged down in January (13.30 GMT) Mexico’s central bank likely to cut rates, but its easing cycle may be near its end (19.00 GMT) Fed nominees highlight Trump’s dovish push (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While there is a …
12th February 2020
Bernie Sanders is expected to win the New Hampshire Democratic Primary Central banks in New Zealand and Sweden will probably keep rates on hold We think that euro-zone industrial production fell by 2.6% m/m in December (10.00 GMT) Key Market Themes It is …
11th February 2020
Jerome Powell’s testimony likely to reiterate that the Fed intends to keep policy unchanged Bernie Sanders favourite to win the New Hampshire Democratic primary UK GDP probably contracted in Q4 last year, but we expect a rebound in Q1 (09.30 GMT) Key …
10th February 2020
China’s inflation data may offer clues about the impact of the virus (Mon.) We think that UK GDP contracted in Q4, but the latest data point to a rebound (Tue.) US consumption probably bounced back in January (Thu.) Key Market Themes January’s employment …
7th February 2020
Germany’s industrial production probably contracted again in Q4 (07.00 GMT) The central bank of Russia is likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 6.00% (10.30 GMT) We forecast that US non-farm payrolls increased by 185,000 in January (13.30 GMT) Key …
6th February 2020
Impeachment trial to end with President Trump’s acquittal later on Wednesday Central banks in Brazil and the Philippines likely to cut their policy rates by 25bp … … while policymakers in the Czech Republic will probably leave rates on hold Key Market …
5th February 2020
Central banks of Brazil, Thailand and Iceland are all likely to cut their policy rates by 25bp We forecast that euro-zone retail sales dropped by 1.2% m/m in December (10.00 GMT) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably rose in January (15.00 GMT) Key …
4th February 2020
US Democratic nomination kicks off, with Sanders the frontrunner in Iowa The RBA is likely to stand pat for now, but we think that it will soon resume its easing cycle Provincial debt saga may set the tone for Argentina’s sovereign debt talks Key Market …
3rd February 2020
We think both of the US ISM surveys rebounded in January (Monday & Wednesday) Brazil’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate on Wednesday We forecast a solid 185,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls in January (Friday) Key Market Themes As the clock …
31st January 2020
China’s official PMIs might give us an idea of the impact on confidence from the virus outbreak We think that Italy’s economy stagnated in Q4 (09.00 GMT) … … but growth in France and Spain probably held up better Key Market Themes The Bank of England left …
30th January 2020
We think that the Bank of England will defy expectations for a rate cut (12.00 GMT) January’s euro-zone sentiment survey will probably point to a weak Q1 (10.00 GMT) US GDP growth is likely to have ticked down in Q4 (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes A sharp …
29th January 2020
Weaker underlying price pressures probably pushed Australia’s inflation down (00.30 GMT) We expect the Fed to leave rates on hold on Wednesday, and throughout 2020 (19.00 GMT) Chile’s central bank likely to keep its policy rate at 1.75% (21.00 GMT) Key …
28th January 2020
China’s ban on outbound travel likely to have significant impact on the rest of EM Asia Central banks in Hungary and Pakistan likely to keep rates on hold US headline durable goods probably fell in December as aircraft sales slumped (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
27th January 2020
BoE is likely to defy expectations for a rate cut; the Fed will also probably stand pat We estimate that US GDP growth slowed to 2.0% annualised in Q4 (Thursday) China’s official PMI might give us an idea of the impact on confidence from the flu outbreak …
24th January 2020
ECB and Norges Bank likely to keep policy settings unchanged at their respective meetings We think that both imports and exports increased in Japan in December (Wed., 23.50 GMT) Consumer confidence in the euro-zone probably improved a bit in January …
22nd January 2020
Bank of Japan likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday We think that Taiwan’s GDP grew by 2.8% y/y in Q4 (08.00 GMT) The UK unemployment rate probably remained at 3.8% in November (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Although the …
20th January 2020
We think that China’s loan prime rate edged down by 5bp in January (Monday) ECB will probably keep its deposit rate at -0.5%, but we expect a cut later this year (Thursday) Central banks in Norway, Canada, Malaysia and Nigeria are also likely to leave …
17th January 2020
We think that activity growth in China held steady in December (02.00 GMT) US housing starts are likely to have risen last month (13.30 GMT)… … But industrial production probably fell (14.15 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite renewed appetite for risk …
16th January 2020
Russia’s government resigns, paving the way for Mr Putin to remain president after 2024 The central banks of Turkey and Egypt will probably cut their policy rates We think that US retail sales grew at a slightly stronger pace in December (13.30 GMT) Key …
15th January 2020
According to our estimates, Germany’s annual GDP increased by 0.5% in 2019 (07.00 GMT) We think that UK CPI inflation remained at 1.5% in December (09.30 GMT) The US and China are scheduled to sign “phase-one” trade deal Key Market Themes Corporate …
14th January 2020
Export and import growth in China is likely to have improved in December Higher gasoline prices and base effects probably pushed US headline CPI inflation up Chinese delegation arrives in Washington to sign “phase-one” trade deal Key Market Themes While …
13th January 2020
The US and China are expected to sign a “phase-one” trade deal on Wednesday We think that Germany’s economy expanded by just 0.5% last year (Wednesday) Turkey’s central bank is likely to cut rates by 100bp, despite a pick-up in inflation (Thursday) Key …
10th January 2020
Australia’s retail sales probably remained weak in November (00.30 GMT) We estimate that US non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in December … … and think that the unemployment rate remained at a 50-year low of 3.5% (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes EM …
9th January 2020
The EC Business & Consumer Survey will probably point to sluggish growth in the euro-zone We suspect that Poland’s central bank will hold fire despite a recent rise in inflation US labour market conditions are likely to have remained robust in December …
7th January 2020
Euro-zone core CPI inflation is likely to have edged down in December (10.00 GMT) We estimate that the US trade deficit narrowed to a three-year low in November (13.30 GMT) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably increased a bit last month (15.00 GMT) …
6th January 2020
Euro-zone core inflation is likely to have declined in December (Tuesday) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably rebounded (Tuesday) We think that US non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 last month (Friday) Key Market Themes Both US Treasuries and …
3rd January 2020
Germany’s inflation probably rose a bit last month, but remained well below 2% (13.00 GMT) We think that the US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.0 in December (15.00 GMT) FOMC minutes are likely to signal that the Fed will remain on hold this year …
2nd January 2020
Japan’s core inflation probably remained at 0.7% in November (Thu., 23.30 GMT) We expect China’s 1-Year Loan Prime Rate to be lowered by 5bp (Fri., 01.30 GMT) Euro-zone consumer confidence index likely to have edged down this month (Fri., 15.00 GMT) Key …
19th December 2019
We expect Sweden’s Riksbank to hike rates on Thursday, but cut next year (08.30 GMT) The central banks of Mexico and Indonesia are likely to ease policy on Thursday … … while those in the UK, Japan, Norway and Taiwan will probably leave rates unchanged …
18th December 2019
Japan’s import volumes are likely to have declined in November (23.50 GMT) Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index probably edged higher in December (09.00 GMT) We think that UK CPI inflation was unchanged last month (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes As the …
17th December 2019
“Phase-one” deal unlikely to put an end to the US-China trade war Bank of England will probably hold off cutting rates for now (Thursday) We expect the PBOC to nudge down its 1-year loan prime rate (Friday) Key Market Themes Sterling and Gilt yields …
13th December 2019
First UK general election results due around 23.00 GMT on Thursday The central bank of Russia will probably cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 6.25% (10.30 GMT) We think that US headline retail sales rose strongly in November (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
12th December 2019
The Fed is likely stay on the side-lines for the foreseeable future (Wednesday, 19.00 GMT) We think a 50bp rate cut in Brazil will be the last of this cycle (Wednesday, 21.20 GMT) Lagarde may provide details on the ECB’s strategic policy review (Thursday, …
11th December 2019
We forecast that core CPI inflation in the US remained at 2.3% in November (13.30 GMT) FOMC likely to leave its target range for the fed funds rate at 1.50-1.75% (19.00 GMT) The central bank of Brazil will probably cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.50% …
10th December 2019
